Man, Anthony Wright just sucks. I've thought that all along, but I decided to try to trust those who know a little more basketball than I do. Unless Wright goes on a ridiculous tear sometime soon, I shall not be dissuaded.
Early in the second half, I thought Maryland was making a run, and as long as Michigan kept it close during said run, the Wolverines would be able to pull away at the end. I was wrong. This team isn't deep enough right now to win games like that against quality competition.
Speaking of depth, with Laval Lucas-Perry, Michigan probably win this game. That's definitely something to look forward to in a couple weeks. Michigan really needed another person who could test the defense of the Terps.
Manny Harris tends to force things too often, leading to turnovers. If something isn't there, he needs to calm down a bit and let the play develop.
The full-court press didn't cause any turnovers (that I can remember off the top of my head, at least), but man, did it give us hell. There were a lot of times I was surprised we managed to break half-court.
If we had gotten a few more rebounds, the Wolverines could have won this game. Zack Gibson let so many go straight through his hands.
I'm certainly watching the game through maize-colored lenses here, but it certainly seemed like the officiating was bad in general and... slanted... in particular. A big part of that may be the home-court advantage in college basketball, but it seemed like we got very few calls, and Maryland got a lot of really close thigns called their way.
This has been a rough year for Michigan fans as streak after streak was broken, as benchmarks of sustained success were missed, as the team lost five straight games and seven of nine overall. What got to me the most was the one step forward, two steps back modus operandi of this team. It seemed as soon as one thing became effective, something else broke. So, every time I saw something that inspired hope, that hope was quickly and forcefully shattered by some mistake or failure.
Maybe it's because I've been telling myself and anyone who will listen that this will work, but I have not really taken stock of how bad this season has been. Before last Saturday, Michigan had won two games by a total of 12 points and lost seven by a total of 87 points. Some of the games were competitive, but in Big Ten play I can't really say Michigan should have won any of the games that it lost. The Wolverines were outplayed by better teams.
This was all sinking in by Saturday. I was resigned to a loss, even a blowout, against a team that Michigan has, quite literally, historically dominated. Even at half time, I figured the same old script would show itself. If this team has proven anything, it's that it's inconsistent. So expected the same old script: three and outs on offense; missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.
This is the first game that I've been excited to re-watch since the Toledo sadness happened. That was really when I lost my optimism for this team. Subsequent games made me question next year's team. But one game made me remember why I was so excited to see this team play in August. What they lack in consistency they make up for in potential.
This offense was an absolute machine on Saturday with one quarterback who doesn't throw well down field and one quarterback who doesn't throw; with the worst offensive line any of us are ever likely to see; freshmen at almost every skill position; the top two running backs not playing at 100%. For the first time the offense was able to effectively counter the defense's adjustments. In the past few games, the original script worked well, but once the defense adjusted, the offense stalled. There were a ton of new wrinkles (e.g. Feagin), some nostalgic wrinkles (e.g. the Braylon Edwards Memorial Diamond Formation), and parts of the basic the scheme that worked better this game than any game previous. This is what we have to look forward to. We got a preview of what this offense will be.
The defense, after giving up 48 points and roughly 6.82x10^23 yards against Purdue absolutely shut down an adequate if not amazing Minnesota offense. The defense was vintage Scott Shafer. The 3-3-5 stack was, as this blog and gsimmons guessed, likely and experiment designed to stop a decent running back (Kory Sheets) because there was a third string quarterback playing. The defense against Minnesota varied between 4-3, 4-3 over and 3-4 okie. The corners played up at the line both on man to man and on basic cover two. The defensive line and linebackers played well as a team and kept the running game contained very well.
My favorite part of the defensive game plan was the 3-4 Okie Chaos on passing third downs. I can't imagine an offensive lineman or quarterback feels comfortable with 4 stand up potential blitzers moving in and out. I have to go back and look, but I don't believe that Minnesota picked up a first down in one of these situations. Scott Shafer isn't just a "press-man coverage and blitz" guy. He uses the threat of blitz just as well as actually blitzing.
This is what this team will become. This game proves that these guys can coach. I don't care if Minnesota isn't as good as advertised. The team that showed up and played could hang with most teams in the Big Ten. But when you have the youth and inexperience that Michigan has, it's irrational to expect consistency game to game and from start to finish. After trying to revel in little victories like converting a third down or a good kick return, it's nice to see the entire product and revel in a victory that results in win.
We caught a glimpse of what will happen, but the best part is that soon we'll be living in the future.
So, with a little more time to let this game stew, it's time to make a few more observations.
First, what was up with the defense? It hasn't been good this year by any means, but it has never been quite that bad. Plus, the base scheme switched from the 4-3 (or the 3-4 nickel) to a pretty standard 3-3-5 stack. I'm not sure if RR decided to go with something he was used to, since Shafer's schemes haven't been lighting the world on fire. The 3-3-5 has developed something of a reputation for being good against the run, but bad against the pass. On Saturday, it was subpar against each. I'm not one to rag on Shafer, as most of the defensive woes are from players being in position, but missing tackles (re-watch the game if you want to torture yourself in that department) or being otherwise John Thompson-y, but the perforfmance the other day still has me scratching my head.
Steven Threet is obviously a lot more hurt than either he or the coaching staff wants to admit. Ever since the elbow bruise, he has been alternatingly mediocre and bad. On Saturday, he was 9-21 for 123 yards. What's more disturbing than that? He is still infinitely better than Nick Sheridan. Sheridan's numbers would have likely been similar, except trading the two touchdowns for interceptions.
Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Boubacar Cissoko had something of a coming out party, though Odoms had flashes of brilliance earlier in the year. Stonum's touchdown catch-and-run was nothing short of awesome, and both Odoms and Cissoko looked more than competent returning kicks and punts.
Justin Feagin played on special teams. What is the point of holding a guy out most of the year, then switching his position and burning his redshirt? It doesn't make much sense, though I wouldn't be surprised if it had something to do with trick play ability in the last few games.
With Brandon Minor proving himself to be something of a competent back when he doesn't fumble, I wonder if Sam McGuffie will see a little more time in the slot. Michigan currently has an absolute dearth of bodies at the position, and he could be useful there. I don't think it would be a permanent change, just something to fill a gap.
I wonder how different his year could have been if we'd gotten one of the games early in the year against Utah or Notre Dame. I don't think the team is as bad as they've played of late, but there confidence has shattered, and the coaches may be trying to do too much stuff, and changing things around as they scramble for wins. At this point, I don't think Purdue is really a better team (particularly with their third-string quarterback), but Michigan is just stuck in a downward spiral that probably won't end until next year.
Going into the Michigan State game, I was not confident Michigan would win, but certainly that they could win. As it turns out, the defense laid a complete egg, and it's back to the drawing board again. A few random observations from the weekend that was:
The stadium atmosphere, though it was better than some games, left a whole lot to be desired. Most disturbingly, a rival's fans got a stadium-wide cheer going in the waning moments of a victory in our stadium.
The offense still can't put together four full quarters, but with the defense Michigan has, there really isn't much of an excuse to lose a game in which we score 21 points.
The recruiting weekend didn't go exactly as planned, but it sounds as though most of the recruits in attendance really liked Michigan - with the notable exception of DeWayne Peace. Is a decommitment looming?
Maybe I've just never considered them because I'm friends with a bunch of MSU fans, and those that I typically run across are cordial enough, but MSU fans are really a special brand of pathetic.
And looking forward to Purdue:
The Boilermakers are probably the coldest team in the conference at this point, with Wisconsin and Indiana finally cracking through this past weekend. The next closest "competitor?" Probably Michigan. Sadly, this weekend's game is likely a battle to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference, along with Indiana.
QB Curtis Painter is expected to miss the game this weekend. Top backup Joey Elliott is out for the remainder of the season. That means OLSM product Justin Siller will likely start for the Boilers.
If you ask me, Purdue is the closest thing offensively Michigan will play to Toledo (except maybe Minnesota). This might bode ill for the Michigan defense, since it's a personnel upgrade at nearly every position (except maybe replacing a 5th-year senior QB for a redshirt freshman).
I don't forsee having a podcast this week.
Michigan really needs this game. If they can get a bit of momentum going, they could probably pull off a game or two against Minnesota and Northwestern, as well.
Paul: me: why did you go to state? her: i didn't want to write an essay Tim: eye lasers Paul: so it begins Paul: yakety Tim: sparty no Tim: sparty no x2 Paul: brian hoyer always comes through. now we'll go 3 and out and miss the fg Tim: I think he was down Tim (post Minor receiving TD): really shitty call, but whatev Paul: i take what i can get Paul: msu fans are moving up the shitlist Tim: yeah. they aren't even knowledgable, which is one of the few possible redeeming qualities. im not used to cocky AND stupid. Tim: haha one of them just threw a punch and got kicked the fuck out Paul: connor got into a scuffle... with an m fan. Paul: mo t: hurt or dog house? Tim: i think they're trying to establish something of a rotation Tim: john thompson isn't sucking. what alternate reality have we been temporarily transported to? Paul: 2 minute offense? what? Tim: in the rare game that we dont score on our first drive, we are tied at half. might there be a little more offense in the tank? Paul: so second half like wisco or like ill/psu? Tim: give me somewhere in between and i might be satisfied Paul: threet can run this offense Tim: obvs Paul: brandon graham hates qbs Tim: Worst kicker in the state of michigan Paul: evil msu fg hating god? Tim: i wouldn't say evil if it's msu hating Paul: evil michigan 3rd down hating god Paul: sparty nothe offense is not inspiring... big play is needed... M needs field position Tim (re: 3trd quarter music): does paralyzer win this vote if we aren't playing state? i think not Tim: i was getting ready to tell you our 3rd down d leaves something to be desired. bg55 bailed it out Paul: looks like he's playing for top end draft $$ Paul: impending doom... Tim: yeah... Paul: and... doom Tim: so much fucking doom Paul: DOOM! Paul: btw... sparty bob infiltrated the pressbox Tim: remember the days when only sheridan threw crippling interceptions? Paul: ohhh last week... i remember thee well.
Rationally I knew it was likely that Michigan would lose. This isn't a good team. The offensive line is inexperienced and constituted mainly of middling recruits. The wide receivers included James Rogers and Zion Babb. A ton of the big contributors are injured or nicked up.
There's a brand new offense that's different, scary and wildly inconsistent. The defense is having growing pains learning a new scheme. Sometimes they look amazing, and other times they look confused.
There's no reason to expect big things. Hume disproved the principle of the uniformity of nature. Just because Michigan has been consistently good does not guarantee that Michigan will be good in the future.
I know Rich Rodriguez will mold this team into a something amazing. He is a winner everywhere he goes. Michigan has a great base and program to support the team. All evidence points to greener fields ahead. The 2009 class (as of now) looks to be elite. The 2010 class will likely be better. Something good is around the corner.
Sparty tried to give Michigan the game. They did not play well. They left a ton of points on the field. Michigan got a very dubious call in their favor (how the Hell was Minor in bounds?). Michigan is just not good enough to capitalize. Rationally I know this season shouldn't be evaluated in wins and losses. Michigan fans need to take their medecine and look forward to the future.
What can I say about the Penn State game? It reinforced several things that we already knew about Michigan, in addition to some other stuff:
The offense isn't simply bad, it's inconsistent. It can be very bad much of the time, and it can also produce effective drives some of the time. The lack of experience is resulting in the evil side of the offense being apparent more than the good side.
Nick Sheridan is not very good at the footballs. By all accounts he's a good kid, but he's not Division-I material.
I had forgotten how bad Penn State fans were. They vault back up to #2 in my "biggest assholes in the conference" unofficial rankings, surpassing Wisconsin.
Minor looked pretty good, and I think that he's likely your primary starter for the short-term future, as a strong runner is necessary when the standard running play is "go into the teeth of the defense with only nominal assistance from your offensive line."
The defense still needs to step up. The big play has become something of a habit. I know Penn State is far and away the best team we've seen so far this year, but the defense has to be able to at least slow them down.
That said, I'm not huge on all this Shafer hate that is going around. I think Shafer is hamstrung by some of the personnel, and maybe even the position coaches he has to work with.
Not sure when I'll get around to making an FNL. Hopefully tonight, though.
And on to Michigan State:
In case you missed it (since I accidentally posted it at midnight), here is the post I wrote about the previous times Rodriguez and Dantonio have faced off. Obviously, neither team is the same, but it's at least interesting to see.
Steve Threet and Brian Hoyer are both supposed to start this weekend. God help us if Threet can't play.
I see Michigan State as a Wisconsin analogue more than anything. Wisconsin is the only team we've beaten so far this year, so at least there's hope.
Tim: oh fuck Paul: we can spot the rockets 7... right? Tim: if we cant... kill me. Paul: after this drive, ill decide whether to prep the CN^4 Paul: is warren dinged up? and finally the minor seam works Tim: hes been near hurt most of the season Paul: also... michigan fans really, really, really, really suck Tim: they are sub sufficient Paul: ive caled one a dumbass and argued with about 3 more Paul: im going to get in a fight with someobne. its inevitabl. why wouldn't you run on 2nd and 20 with 10 secs left? Paul: so you try a bomb with a qb who has already thrown one pick6 and tried to throw another? Tim: toe fuckledo Paul: ruck the fockets! Paul: and we got rick roll'd Tim: obvs. kill me now Paul: is it better than the m offense has scored all 17 points this game? Tim: better, yet simultaneously much, much worse. i think. Paul: they've only scored 3 on the michigan defense Tim: they are also toledo. im just sayin Paul: omg! first down! fire shaffer! Nate: it is sad. for the world Tim: remember how sheridan is terrible? shit... Paul: sheridamnit? Tim: pretty much Paul: CONER!!! Tim: put in the competent qb plz Paul: i wouldn't mind seeing threet, odoms, mathews, warren, and/or graham Paul:this seems eerily similar to appy. except both teams are much worse Tim: remember how sheridan suxzzz? me2. Paul: hes like pat white with a much worse arm/less running ability/no melanin and better hair Tim: way better hair. unfortunately, hair != skill Paul: id take opelt :( Paul: mind lasers. please. we need an inexplicable mistake on their part Tim: tom hammond save us all Paul: all hail hammond! & zoltan... Paul: mmb should learn yakety sax Tim: no but we're srsly going to lose to fuckin toledo Paul: ast time you said that we lost to appy! jinxer! Paul: i think this proves sheridan to clemons is not effective Tim: sheridan to X is generally terrible. mostly on account of the sheridan factor Paul: bye bye motor city bowl Tim: i might puke Paul: can we pretend toledo is in CUSA or something? Tim: beat the fucking nittany lions Tim: maybe we can win the tears of infinite sadness award this week.
The Situation Illinois leads Michigan, 31-20 with about 9 minutes left in the game. After starting strong, the Michigan offense has sputtered, but finally got back on the board on its last drive. In spite of a questionable pass interference call on John Thompson, Michigan has Illinois in a 3rd-and-2 situation on their own 49 yard line. A stop here could help continue Wolverine momentum, and give the Wolverines a chance to get back into the game.
The Personnel and Formation Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan's base 3-4 has a linebacker (John Thompson) on the line to the slot receiver side. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are centered over the line, which consists of the standard starters (Graham, Taylor, Johnson, and Jamison). The secondary is composed of Brandon Harrison, Stevie Brown, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent.
The Play Juice Williams runs a quarterback draw, running right into the heart of Michigan's strong defensive line. This should be a stop by Michigan, but Williams manages to scamper 50 yards down the field, before he is run down from behind by Stevie Brown at the 1 yard line. Michigan's defensive play is a blitz of the weakside of the formation by Thompson, with the line clogging things up and the other two linebackers playing the run. The secondary mans up on the receivers.
Why it Worked Brandon Graham and Jonas Mouton seem to both be to blame for Juice getting loose (damnit, I was going to avoid saying that). Michigan's defensive play seems to be for the defensive line to plug up the middle, with the linebackers freed up to make plays near the line of scrimmage. Graham gets greedy, however, and gives up his inside position when it appears that Juice will try to go around the edge. This frees up a gap for Williams to head through. Mouton should be there, but he was also fooled by Juice, and has rushed to the outside to play contain. However, it appears as though his responsibility was not contain, as Brandon Harrison has filled the same gap. Mouton and Graham were both supposed to be in position to stop Juice here, and considering that neither was, it's easy to see why he got free.
The Situation Michigan leads Illinois 14-10 with about 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Illini have the ball in a 2nd-and-10 situation on their own 43 yard line. Michigan's offense has been clicking early in the game, and a big stop on Illinois's potential go-ahead drive would sustain the Wolverine momentum, and possibly springboard another Michigan scoring drive.
The Personnel and Formation
Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan is running out of its 3-4 Okie nickel package. The corners are playing off, and Charles Stewart is the high safety along with Brandon Harrison. Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, and John Thompson are the linebackers. Mike Martin is the pass-rushing DT.
The Play
Michigan is in a cover-3, with both OLBs blitzing. At the snap, John Thompson blitzes, allowing Daniel Dufrene to run right by him. This is unfortunate for Thompson and the Michigan defense at large, as this play is a designed screen (not quite a swing pass, as The Davids - ESPN's shittiest new announce team - state). Williams lofts the ball over Thompson's head, and Dufrene makes the catch. He follows his screen blockers, breaks a couple early tackle attempts, and outruns the Wolverines to the endzone.
Why it Worked John Thompson is the major culpable party in Illinois's success on this play. In Shafer's scheme, he is designated to blitz on this play, but has the responsibility to "hug up" on Dufrene if he leaks out of the backfield. It is plain to see Thompson realizes his mistake, as he has an "oh shit" moment, and turns around when he realizes Dufrene has passed him.
This was an effective play call against a blitz, and of course the responsibilities of the blitzers are supposed to compensate for this. Thompson's fuckup amplified the effectiveness of the playcall.
It's hard to fault him too much, since he was making sure there weren't huge cutback lanes in the secondary, but Donovan Warren starts off this play taking a terrible angle. He almost manages to still catch up with Dufrene, and had he taken a better angle, might have stopped this 5-10 yards short of the endzone.
There were problems with fumbling again, but the first one was by Brandon Minor, which can be chalked up to his being Brandon Minor, one came from a freshman (Michael Shaw) coming off injury, and the rest came late in the game when players were trying too hard to make something happen. After the last few weeks, maybe this is disturbing because the fumbles are continuing to happen, but this time, they didn't really decide the game (as they did against Notre Dame, and could have last week against the Badgers).
The defense was not very good. Unless they step up their play, Daryll Clark is going to have a field day in a couple of weeks. Fortunately, I think some of the real problems are correctable:
Tackling. This hasn't been an issue so far this year, so hopefully the poor physicality and tackling effort this week was more of an anomaly than anything.
Charles Stewart. Man, if you're going to play the ball instead of the man when you're the only guy between him and the endzone, you've got to leave your feet to prevent him from making the catch. Running past a guy while waving your arms and getting almost there isn't going to cut it.
Disciplined play. On Juice's long near-touchdown run, Brandon Graham, Jonas Mouton, and Brandon Harrison all took the outside (contain) assignment. At least one guy (Graham) and probably a second (Mouton) was supposed to be plugging the inside. This was, at least hopefully, a case of players getting frustrated, and trying to do too much to make a play. They will definitely get chewed out by Shafer, and hopefully not be in a position where they have to force plays late in the game again.
Pressure and contain. The defense could usually get one, but at the expense of the other. I'd bet a small part of this is being tired from the emotional win last week.
Stevie Brown. He didn't do anything egregiously wrong this week, but I wouldn't be a Michigan fan if I wasn't bitching about him, now would I?
Steve Threet was his typical hot-and-cold self. I think when he's in rhythm, he's very good. However, if he isn't in rhythm, the results can be ugly. If he gets knocked out of rhythm during the game, as we saw against the Illini, it is very hard for him to snap back into form. Part of this is his youth. Part of it is the offensive line putting him in a difficult situation or two.
Martavious Odoms continues to have some struggles running precise routes, or at the very least getting on the same page as Threet. Chalk this up to inexperience. Once he's been in this offense a year or so, Odoms should be a super-entertaining player to watch.
Just like the past few weeks, this game showed why this team is going to be exciting to watch in the near future, but frustrating to watch right now.
As Paul did last week, I'll post our text message log, to capture the essence of our thoughts during the game. For the record, Paul was at the game, and I was watching on TV.
Tim to Paul 5:06 pm: be louder Paul to Tim 6:21 pm: opposite of wisconsin game? Tim to Paul: yeah so we kind of suck. the fans have been quiet as shit all second half, btw Paul to Tim: theyre leaving and we need a big play to get the crowd into it Tim to Paul: theres a td at least... maybe Paul to Tim: eventually. fingers crossed Paul to Tim: does gingell wear 84 now? Tim to Paul: no kidding. kc has been bad to terrible all day. hes been bailed out by the earlier blocked pat still going in Paul to Tim: is it just kc? snap? hold? line? Tim to Paul: i didn't see anything bad w/ them Paul to Tim 6:41 pm: :( Tim to Paul: no joke Paul to Tim: NOW we knock out juice... Paul to Tim 6:50 pm: i guess before wisco i said id be happy with 1 of 2 Tim to Paul: truth. beat the rockets Tim to Paul 7:05 pm: yay, lets get threet hurt Paul to Tim: ehh... the players didnt quit last week. i feel he had to.
More substantive postgame post coming up in a little bit.
Since I let Paul's post stand on its own after the game Saturday, here are a few things I'd like to add:
First off, Paul's text message about UConn had to do with the fair catch on a bounced ball. I'm not positive, but I think once the ball touches the ground in NCAA, the right to a fair catch is forfeited. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
Why did Rodriguez call a timeout (and the refs clarified that it was NOT a challenge) after one of the Wisconsin fumble recoveries. I thought the play was close enough to warrant a challenge, and I think it's ridiculous that the booth didn't use the commercial break to at least take another look. From the angles that were shown in the stadium, the Wisconsin player's left leg was out of bounds by the time he recovered the ball.
On that note, at halftime, I was formulating a post in my head about how the refs didn't cause Michigan to win... but they sure didn't help. They were much better in the second half, and Michigan may have even gotten a couple of breaks.
Steven Threet. 58-yard run. Awesome.
Wisconsin fans have picked up the torch from Penn State fans for the honor of "second biggest assholes in the conference." I said good game to a guy wearing a t-shirt that read "I wouldn't cheer for Michigan if they were playing Iraq" (yay for dated reference!), and he couldn't muster anything more than a sneer. He was one of the lesser douchebags I encountered all weekend.
And this stuff may deserve its own post, but I'll take this opportunity to bitch about the fans:
If you don't know anything about football, don't bitch about play calling, etc. I may start a regular feature on Mondays called "From the Dumbest Fan in the Stands," or give an "atmosphere report" for games that I go to. Option A will be accompanied by the photo you see on the right.
If you booed in the first half, you can try to say you were booing the coaching decisions, but you're either lying or you don't know about football. The coaches were calling downfield passes, but Threet wasn't executing. Would you have preferred they keep going to it so we could have had 8 turnovers? The offensive line couldn't block anyone on running plays. Sure, the coaches are partially culpable, but the players were struggling.
Despite all the bad, the stadium didn't get nearly as quiet during the first three quarters as I would have expected. Most of the noise was coming from the student section at that time, but there were still a few people in the South endzone stepping up.
By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the crowd was as loud as I can remember it being.
Until the major comeback, my companion and I were the ONLY people in our immediate vicinity (south endzone, row 16) who had stood up on a third down in the game. That is pitiful if you can't even get up and yell on an important play.
At halftime, some idiot behind me yelled "Why don't you go back to West Virginia, ya stupid snake-oil salesman!" This was stupid for all the obvious reasons, and I thought I had the perfect response "How about we keep him and get rid of you?" Of course, after the game (and I have to give him at least some credit for staying the whole time), he was preaching the glory of the spread.
For ITP this week, we'll probably be taking a look at Wisconsin's two 2-point conversion attempts, and what was the difference between the two. If you'd prefer something else (and not the Threet keeper, since we've already covered the zone-read ad nauseam), drop your opinion in the comments and Paul and I will try to accommodate you.
With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let's take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we'll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.
Looking Back:
Utah The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah's will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it's strength against strength as Michigan's potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah's D may score once or twice itself. Prediction: Tossup
Utah's D didn't score, but Michigan's defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan's offense wouldn't be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.
Miami Miami's linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn't come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines' D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win. Prediction: Victory
Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.
Notre Dame 2008 is Michigan's turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame's effort from last year. Jon Tenuta's blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn't be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful '05 and '06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents... note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense? Prediction: Tossup
Michigan's inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn't show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.
Looking Forward Since these games haven't happened yet, my predictions haven't become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.
Wisconsin The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW's pass defense doesn't improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan's D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn't prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down. Prediction: Loss
Perhaps Michigan's second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin's defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.
I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.
When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it's looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.
I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.
Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers' offense wasn't particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.
After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.
Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Youngstown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to "defeat."
And...? If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.
Horrid (and questionable but possibly not right) calls that went against Michigan Saturday.
Chop block on David Molk. The right guard had not engaged the defensive tackle when Molk went low. This is as bad a judgment call as I've seen in a while.
Greg Mathews diving catch in the endzonde ruled incomplete. This was a close call, but Mathews's right hand was between the ball and the ground the entire time, and the ball is not jarred loose when he hits the ground (a sure sign that he has full control of it). This isn't an egregiously bad call, but another example of Michigan getting bad breaks in this game. (video below).
On 4th & 6, Steven Threet throws (slightly behind) Martavious Odoms. Odoms turns back for the ball, but has no chance to make a catch, because his left wrist is raked by the defender, so he can't get it back to the ball.
On the very next play, there is no contact between Donovan Warren and Michael Floyd. The pass is broken up. More than three seconds after the play ends, an official away from the ball throws the least-justified pass interference flag possible. Even the NBC announcers(!) think it is a terrible call. On the next play, Golden Tate catches the game-sealing touchdown (in the first quarter, ugh). (video below)
Second quarter, Michigan has brought the game back within 11, Notre Dame is driving. On second and goal, Donovan Warren is called for pass interference ("a fag is down in the endzone") on a ball that was thrown out the back of the endzone (again by a ref with an obstructed view of the play, wtf), and would have been uncatchable by anyone. Notre Dame scores a touchdown on the ensuing first and goal.
Michigan is driving in the second quarter, and Sam McGuffie is literally pulled to the ground by his facemask, and nothing else. The linesman (who is within 4 yards of the play) reaches for his flag, but decides against throwing it. Ultimately, the umpire says "wtf?" and has to throw the flag from 15 yards downfield. This isn't exactly a missed call, since the umpire made up for it, but how does a linesman not call that?
Third quarter, Jimmy Clausen grounds it, no doubt at all. The NBC announcers, of course ruminate for a full minute on how "it was probably close enough" to the line of scrimmage. If it doesn't pass the line of scrimmage, there is no "close enough."
With 3:40 left in the third quarter, Michigan has the ball on ND's 5. Kevin Grady is stopped for a 1-yard gain, and fumbles. His forward progress had been stopped for a good period of time before the fumble. For those who say it shouldn't have been ruled forward progress because Grady had carried a guy into the endzone earlier in the game: you're wrong. On the first play, Grady never stopped moving forward (and was hardly even slowed down). On the second play, Grady was wrapped up low by one Irish, and high by two, with his forward progress completely stoppped, when one of the guys up top strips him. It's a completely different situation, which should result in a completely different call from the officials.
With 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, David Bruton makes an interception for the Irish. On the return, he is brought down by David Molk. Molk is called for a horse collar tackle (at least I think so, the NBC coverage was awful). However, what Molk did (grab and release the back of Bruton's jersey, causing Bruton to lose his balance and fall down) is not at all a horse collar (definition: grabbing the inside of a ball-carrier's shoulder pads and riding him to the ground). I don't know how the refs could make such an egregious error on a 15-yard penalty.
Of course, Michigan beat themselves in this game, and they certainly had opportunities to win the game themselves. However, couple all of the above (9 possible mistakes by officials, with at least 3-4 being definite mistakes) with the following Michigan mistakes:
Following the Molk chop block, Steven Threet and Brandon Minor conspire to fumble the ball inside their own 20, giving Notre Dame a short field. Michigan's defense can't stop the Irish.
On the ensuing kickoff, Michael Shaw muffs the ball, giving Notre Dame yet another short field, on which they convert.
Donovan Warren, Stevie Brown, and John Thompson all miss tackles on Golden Tate, ultimately resulting in a Notre Dame touchdown.
Steven Threet fumbles a snap once the torrential downpour begins, which the Irish return for a touchdown.
Nick Sheridan. Egregious Interceptions. obvs. He completed all five passes he threw, but two of them were to the guys in blue shirts.
...and you have a recipe for disaster that is unlikely to be repeated again.
Notre Dame had no sustained drives, and was outgained 388-260. They also had every single fumble of their own bounce right back to their own players (the exact opposite of what happened to Michigan).
The Wolverines should look at Saturday's contest with an optimistic light, and Notre Dame fans should be fearful that their win was little more than a fluke.
The refs were truly brutal in this game. I certainly won't blame them for the end result, but they definitely had a hand in getting the game there. Awful PI calls on Warren, a somewhat questionable one on Trent, and a catch by Mathews gave the Irish about a 15 point swing, and when playing from behind, players are more likely to take risks to make a big play. Also, the Grady fumble should have been called dead for forward progress. That was a hell of a missed call. Again, the players are ultimately responsible for the result, but this is a young team that didn't really deserve the help in beating itself.
The defensive line was kinda crappy. Though they ultimately allowed ND to get only 3.3 yards for each carry, they gave up some critical yards in the third and fourth quarters. Still, when the defense only gives up 1 or 2 scoring drives (one ND TD "drive" started at the Michigan 11, one at the Michigan 14, two were composed almost entirely of a long pass to Golden Tate, and the final TD was scored on defense), it's hard to find a ton of fault on that side of the ball.
Steven Threet, as predicted by many, has settled down the more game reps he has gotten. He finally calmed down enough to execute the throws that he was floating before. Then Sheridan came in a reminded Michigan fans why they should want Threet to succeed.
Sam McGuffie looks like the real deal. The offensive line was still sub-optimal against the Irish, and McGuffie had some impressive runs (and of course the screen pass). It was so kind of Perry Dorrestein to slam into McGuffie from behind on the touchdown screen.
Going forward, this game should probably give a little more hope to Michigan fans, though they are still disappointed for what could have been. I guess that's what Michigan gets for RUNNING THE SPREAD OPTION IN HURRICANE KATRINA.
Tim and I both agreed that Threet looked much better than Sheridan again. He made better reads, better throws (for the most part), and even looked more authoritative on his runs. With a repertoire of two half games for each, I think Steven Threet should be the starting quarterback. I wasn't watching the broadcast, so I don't know why they were rotating; I think it was to give each guy a shot against the same team (again).
Mark Ortmann came out in the third quarter, but the injury was treated with an icepack on his elbow. It didn't appear to be too serious, and God help us all if it is.
The gameplan seemed to be almost the exact same as last week. Even the first play was the exact same (of course, Odoms had much more success on it today than he did against Utah). Are the coaches holding back tricks for later games, and keeping it vanilla (a la DeBord), or is this everything they can do with quarterbacks who can barely throw and run?
Shaw was running well, then disappeared. Anyone watch the broadcast and hear why that might have been? In Shaw's stead, McGuffie was the best running back. I'm surprised we didn't see more of Grady when they ran from the I-form. Minor was, well, Minor. That is neither good nor bad.
The fans faded during the course of the game. When the team gave them something to be really excited about, they responded. However, the fan momentum wasn't really maintained, and the third quarter was pretty quiet.
The half-rolls that Miami was using on offense was pretty effective (once they went to it - nice adjustment by the Miami coaching staff). It prevents a fairly dominant D-line from getting to the quarterback. We'll see if other teams go to that sort of strategy, and how Shafer reacts.
This offense hasn't been making too many big plays (aside from a couple of runs getting blown open and the Odoms screen), but when you watch them play, it is clear that they have big-play potential, and are just a slight improvement in execution away from making something very interesting happen. As the experience across the board improves (especially if Zirbel and Ortmann can get/stay healthy), and more of the playbook is installed, this offense may be adequate down the road.
The offensive line was again a weak point. We can hope for improvement and the return of Zirbel, and they could be good (enough) by the end of the year.
Obi Ezeh was again a badass in terms of making tackles, and seemed to defend the pass better this week (albeit against worse competition). He could be a really special player down the line.
In yesterday's Unverified Voracity, Brian mentioned that the mass media will com up with a message that they want to write about, and then write their article about that whether or not the circumstances are true. For example, he said that the media would assume that fans would criticize Rodriguez's playcalling, and wrote their articles regardless of whether that was true or not.
Another annoying instance of this I've run across is the assumption that Michigan fans think the sky is falling down. With an upset against a far inferior team, among the worst that Michigan will play this year, fans clearly think that Michigan will struggle to win a single game this year...
...except that's not at all what Michigan fans are saying. Those who have a clue (which is, thankfully and surprisingly, a majority) realize that Utah might be the best non-Ohio State team (and certainly among them) that the Wolverines will face in 2008, and have set expectations accordingly. Sure, people are disappointed in the play of the offense, but nearly everyone I've talked to has been encouraged by the play of the defense in the second half, and thinks that the offense can only improve with Steven Threet the man in charge. The most negative article I've seen was Brian's game column.
So, mass media, don't make assumptions about fan perception and write your articles from your assumptions: you might want to take into account, you know, the truth.
Though Threet's stats are worse than Sheridan's, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying "the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat"). There are several factors that account for this.
After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie's hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
Threet's attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
Threet's touchdown pass was prettier.
The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet's guidance.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami's defense is not as good as Utah's, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don't expect anything this bad again, but don't expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.
Rushing Comparison:
Michigan Rushing v. Utah
Name
Att
Yds
TD
Yds/Att
Sam McGuffie
8
8
1
1.00
Brandon Minor
4
21
0
5.25
Nick Sheridan
5
1
0
0.40
Steven Threet
5
0
0
0.00
Michael Shaw
2
1
0
0.50
Carlos Brown
1
4
0
4.00
Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.
Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.
Michigan's 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.
Defense by Half: Utah's total offense in the first half: 303 yards. Utah's total offense in the second half: 38 yards.
As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: "We may have lost a game, but found a defense."
After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effort in the second half.
I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I'm disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.
Helping the Wolverines Of course, Utah's mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.
Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned): Michigan's average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line. Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah's 35 yard line. The only scoring drive that didn't begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.
The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn't move?
There are two theories:
It was just a trick play.
Michigan's center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.
I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah's entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:
Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn't notice the play has started, when he isn't really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.
If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.
For this week's Inside the Play, I'll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.
Michigan lost a home game to a MWC team, so you can expect that I'm disappointed/angry/horrified, etc.
However, I have to say I'm actually encouraged by today's game.
After the defensive players realized that the season had started, and they should probably, you know, play football, that unit completely dominated.
The offense was pretty bad. The line was decent for the players that are left one it, but they'll need to improve over the course of the season if Michigan is going to be successful. The QB was pretty bad, but some of it was first-game jitteriness, and some was being rattled by the QB pressure. There should be an improvement by the QBs next week against a much worse defense.
The special teams were very good. Nice to see Lopata nail a career-long FG, and see multiple kicks (an extra point and a punt) blocked. What's scary is that I only see this unit getting better during the year.
Of course, it's always a disappointment to lose, but I saw it coming, so it doesn't sting as much as maybe it should. Lowered expectations lead to a happier postgame feeling. If the defense can play all year like it did in the second half, I expect this team to be top-25 quality (even if the record won't reflect that until much later in the year). If the offense can come around, this could be a decent year in Ann Arbor.
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