With Michigan's basketball team attaining a new standard of relevance, it's easy to see how Wolverines fans are already prognosticating a run to the NCAA tournament. Wins over UCLA and Duke are certainly a stepping stone towards achieving that goal, but there is still work to be done. Let's see what Michigan has to do to make it into the Big Dance. Sagarin Ratings are little more than a rough draft at this point, but they give us some idea of the relative strengths of the teams.

Completed Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Result	Record
11-11-08	Michigan Tech	(DII)	77-55	1-0
11-12-08	Northeastern	151	76-56	2-0
11-20-08	(n) UCLA	20	55-52	3-0
11-21-08	(n) Duke	4	56-71	3-1
11-25-08	Norfolk State	321	83-49	4-1
11-29-08	Savannah State	230	66-64	5-1
12-3-08	@Maryland	39	70-75	5-2
12-6-08	Duke	4	81-73	6-2

The wins over UCLA and Duke were certainly not expected, and one could easily maintain that Michigan has done better through the first part of its schedule than could possibly have been expected. Salvaging the win over Savannah State was key. Had Michigan been able to top Maryland on the road (and, in all honesty, they should have), we'd be looking at a pretty highly-ranked team right now.

Remaining Non-conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-13-08	Eastern Michigan	261	W
12-20-08	Oakland	124	W
12-22-08	Florida Gulf Coast	317	W
12-29-08	NC Central	345	W
2-7-08	@ UConn	7	L

The remaining four games before the start of the conference schedule are all must-wins. Even with some good victories under their belt, the Wolverines would be devastated by a loss to any of these teams. The mid-year tilt with UConn looks like a loss this early in the year, but who knows where the teams will be come February?

Conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-31-08	Wisconsin	31	W
1-4-09	Illinois	25	T
1-7-09	@ Indiana	146	W
1-11-09	Iowa	65	W
1-14-09	@ Illinois	25	L
1-17-09	Ohio State	5	L
1-20-09	@ Penn State	80	W
1-24-09	Northwestern	36	W
1-28-09	@ Ohio State	5	L
1-31-09	@ Purdue	33	L
2-5-09	Penn State	80	W
2-10-09	Michigan State	37	T
2-15-09	@ Northwestern	36	T
2-19-09	Minnesota	57	W
2-22-09	@ Iowa	65	T
2-26-09	Purdue	33	T
3-1-09	@ Wisconsin	31	L
3-7-09	@ Minnesota	57	T

Going into the conference schedule, it loks like Michigan will have a 10-2 record (and will and with a 10-3 non-conference record overall). The conference predictions are little more than guesses at this point, because it's hard to tell this early in the season exactly how good all these teams are. Regardless, I project Michigan to be 17-8 (7-5) with 6 in-conference toss-ups. They would likely need to win at least two of those toss-ups, but preferably three to bring them to 20-11 (10-8). This would nearly assure them a bid to the NCAA tournament, especially if combined with a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney. 19-12 (9-9) would likely necessitate a couple wins in the Big Ten Tournament to warrant an NCAA bid.

Of course, Michigan will overachieve at times, and likely underachieve at others. The key is to minimize bad losses, and win most of the games that they should. Combined with the possibility for an upset or two, they should be able to make the tournament.

Another key will be closing the season strong. Unlike college football, finishing the regular season strong is an established criterion for selection to the NCAA tournament. With a likely loss and three tossups in the final four regular-season games, Michigan will have to find a way to win a couple of those tossups to warrant strong consideration.

Labels: basketball, dancing, still not football

Tim bought tickets for the Duke game on a whim earlier this year. Before the season started, we figured it would at least be a big game with national coverage. After the UCLA game, it started to look like it might be winnable. After the first Duke game, we figured the team could at least make a game of it.

I haven't been to that many basketball games, but this was the best crowd I have ever seen at Crisler. There were times that it was absolutely ready to explode, but it rarely got to that next, euphoric level. There was a Novak three point attempt that just rimmed out, a Manny Harris missed dunk (which was a horrible no call), and a lot of other times Duke was able to come down and get a big basket. I know Tim and I felt impending doom, and it seemed like the crowd as a whole had that feeling. We all wanted to believe, but Michigan could never pull away and Duke kept hitting big shots.

What I thought really showed that this team has really gotten to the "next level" was the start of the second half. Duke went on a run and there were a 3 or 4 calls that went against Michigan (not all of them "bad" calls, but rather calls that could reasonably be no-calls). Duke got a bit of a lead and the "here we go again" feeling started setting in. Then, Michigan went on their own run. Novak hit a monster three-pointer from both corners, and Manny was able to knife through Duke's defense and get to the basket. Suddenly Michigan was up 5 or so. Watching the Maryland game, I kept thinking that all they needed was a basket, stop and a basket to have a chance at winning that game. They weren't able to do that, but at home, against Duke, they pulled together and stopped the run and put together one of their own. Duke didn't seem to play particularly poorly either. They ran their offense efficiently and looked decent on defense.

A few random things:

• Manny Harris can't be stopped. He seems to be able to get to the basket at will, regardless of who he's playing against.
• DeShawn Simms was on fire in the first half and came up with some big offensive rebounds in the second half.
• Zack Novak is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He is absolutely fearless shooting the ball.
• Did Anthony Wright even take a shot? Weird...
• I feel comfortable with Kelvin Grady breaking any press that's thrown at him. He has great speed and some nice moves. He just needs to finish more consistently. He was clutch at the end.
  
• Rushing the court at the end of the game is completely acceptable. Tim and I didn't participate (we were in the nosebleeds), but this is one of the biggest wins in the post-sanctions era.
• I wish I could have heard the interview between Bilas and Beilein. Awkward! The shot was absolutely awesome with Beilein in front of a bunch of crazy fans. Maybe this is a result of blogging, but our first thought was "this will be awesome for recruiting"
  

Labels: :), basketball, DeShawn Sims, John Beilein, Manny Harris, zack novak

A few quick thoughts on last night's game:

• Man, Anthony Wright just sucks. I've thought that all along, but I decided to try to trust those who know a little more basketball than I do. Unless Wright goes on a ridiculous tear sometime soon, I shall not be dissuaded.
• Early in the second half, I thought Maryland was making a run, and as long as Michigan kept it close during said run, the Wolverines would be able to pull away at the end. I was wrong. This team isn't deep enough right now to win games like that against quality competition.
• Speaking of depth, with Laval Lucas-Perry, Michigan probably win this game. That's definitely something to look forward to in a couple weeks. Michigan really needed another person who could test the defense of the Terps.
• Manny Harris tends to force things too often, leading to turnovers. If something isn't there, he needs to calm down a bit and let the play develop.
• The full-court press didn't cause any turnovers (that I can remember off the top of my head, at least), but man, did it give us hell. There were a lot of times I was surprised we managed to break half-court.
• If we had gotten a few more rebounds, the Wolverines could have won this game. Zack Gibson let so many go straight through his hands.
• I'm certainly watching the game through maize-colored lenses here, but it certainly seemed like the officiating was bad in general and... slanted... in particular. A big part of that may be the home-court advantage in college basketball, but it seemed like we got very few calls, and Maryland got a lot of really close thigns called their way.

Labels: basketball, postview, still not football

In its 9 years of existence, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge has been fairly one-sided: The ACC has won every single time. 2008 brings yet another chance for the Big Ten to break through in the Challenge. Through two days of competition, the conference are tied at 3 wins apiece (thanks, Illini and Hawkeyes, for throwing your games away). With a couple daunting games left (UNC/MSU, Indiana/Wake Forest), the teams who represented the bottom of the conference last year will have to sweep the ACC in order for the Big Ten to lock up its first challenge.

Sagarin Ratings in remaining games

• #129 Indiana visits #22 Wake Forest, and they'll be 16.39 point underdogs in Raleigh-Durham.
• #83 Penn State takes on #58 Georgia Tech on the road, in a game in which the Jackets will be favored by 5.13 points.
• #23 Michigan State hosts #1 North Carolina at Ford Field. They will be 10.21-point dogs in the neutral-site game. However, The 'Heels may be without their star, Tyler Hansbrough (who, of course, they've been without for much of this year).
• #46 Florida State goes to Chicago to face #59 Northwestern, and the Big Ten actually has a favorite in this one! The Cats are 7.06-point favorites.

...And that brings us to the game that Michigan fans care most about: the Wolverines head to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins at 7:30 tonight on ESPNU.

Maryland sports a #34 Sagarin Rating, and Michigan is #40. On a neutral floor, Beilein's bunch would be a 2.36-point underdog. In a home game, the Terps are favored by 6.36. They enter this contest on a two-game slide against Gonzaga and Georgetown. Maryland's best player is the outstandingly-monikered Grievis Vasquez, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. His effective field goal percentage is 45.88%, which is supbar. Georgetown managed to shut Vasquez down, holding him to 1-7 shooting (0-4 3pt).

Michigan State

• Maryland faced Michigan State (on a neutral floor) in the Old Spice Classic, and beat the Spartans handily, by a score of 80-62.
• Michigan State, the only team Maryland has played with a Sagarin rating anywhere remotely close to Michigan's, Vasquez still only shot 42.86 eFG%, meaning that he is certainly containable (of course, his 17 points were aided by the Spartans sending him to the free throw line 6 times).
• Michigan State lost the game against Maryland by giving up too many good looks from the outside. The Terrapins shot 9-19 from behind the arc in the Old Spice Classic. For the year, Michigan's opponents are shooting 27.45% from three, including bad performance by UCLA and Duke, and an inexplicable 7-9 from Savannah State. For its part, Maryland's performance against State was a pretty significant outlier in the young season.
  
• The Terrapins also managed to shut down Raymar Morgan, who to this point in 2008 has been MSU's go-to player. Michigan doesn't rely on a post presence like Morgan, instead shooting the ball from outside a lot, and getting slashes to the basket from Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims (who also posts up a bit).
• Although Maryland shut down MSU's post presence, they don't have a lot of size, and it will be interesting to see whether DeShawn Sims can have a bit more success down low (along with Zack Gibson) - or at least use the postup to open up shooters outside.
  

The Wolverines face a tough test, especially since Maryland shut down a team expected to be far better than them in the Spartans. However, the Terrapins haven't been without their troubles, and Michigan is a different type of team than Michigan State, regardless of difference in talent level.

Go Blue, beat the Terrapins!

Labels: basketball, maryland, michigan state hate, still not football

Going into the game against UCLA, I figured it would be a idea to play a drinking game where you take a drink for every field goal made. For the first few minutes it looked like a good call as UCLA appeared to be creeping out to a big lead at 9-1. Then something weird happened.

The team last year at times looked confused in the 1-3-1 defense. They didn't get to their spots in time, couldn't recover on the swing. It looked like it wasn't going to work. Against UCLA the 1-3-1 allowed Michigan to aggressively trap and force a ton of turnovers.

The hardest part about watching the Amaker years was the complete lack of fundamentals coaching, especially on the offensive end. Lazy passes, bad spacing, and no movement were the norm rather than the exception. In this game we saw great bounce passes to back-cutting players, exceptional spacing for our players to get to work, and good shooting from the outside. Beyond that, there were a lot of good shots that the players just couldn't finish. Soon they'll be able to get those shots to go down and we'll have a very potent offense on our hands.

At the end of the game I was waiting for UCLA to come back and win. Being a Michigan fan, my experience in the recent past is often "get a glimmer of hope; get that violently beaten to death." After UCLA made the 3pt shot to get it within one I could feel myself thinking "OK. This is it." Then, Michigan was able to inbound the ball, not just to anybody, but to a very legitimate closer in "Manny" Harris (quick aside: is it weird that out of Corperryale Manny Harris it's the Manny that gets the quotes?). I jumped up and started cheering. This was before Manny nailed the two free throws. From my years watching Amaker "coach" Michigan, I fully expected either a 5-seconds call or the ball being taken away on the inbounds. Instead, they got to Manny who got fouled with 4.6 seconds left. He walked to the line and sank two huge free throws like it was practice. UCLA gets a great inbounds pass almost all the way to half court and gets to the arc. The whole time I was yelling "foul him! for the love of all that is good and holy in this world foul him!' Instead, Harris decides he'll just block the attempt. Game over.

Sure, UCLA is probably overrated. They lost a ton of production last year, but they are still one of the better defensive teams out there and Michigan only had 10 turnovers. 10 turnovers to 15 assists against a team that usually plays lights out man-to-man defense. This team is turning the corner. I have no reason not to believe they have a shot at the tourney come March. If they can hang with and beat UCLA, there's very few teams they don't have a shot to beat. Before the UCLA game, I would have been happy with a barely above .500 season where the team looks good and hangs in tough against the big dogs, but now I think Michigan has a chance to do a lot of damage, especially in conference play once they get Lucas-Perry playing.

The kids seem like they believe they can make the Tournament. I know Beilein believes they can do it. They know a hell of a lot more about their chances then I do. So, I guess get ready for March Madness.

Labels: basketball, I posted, John Beilein, Manny Harris

I did not attend either of Michigan's games in their regional of the 2Ksports Classic benefitting Coaches v. Cancer (not getting into town until tomorrow: drat!), but I did manage to catch most of both games on ESPNU by heading out to local drinking establishments.

Pre-game tonight (IM conversation):
Paul: no one wanted to go to the bball game with me... i'm so surprised
Tim: haha. are you still going to go?
Paul: no
Tim: typical michigan basketball fan. i would go if i were there.
Paul: who wants to go to the bball game alone. that would be sad
Tim: THE BASKETBALL TEAM DOESNT SEEM TO MIND IT
Tim: der uberzing.

...And on that note:

• Am I supposed to be able to tell Zach Novak and Stu Douglass apart? I hope not.
• I love how "Academic All-Big Ten" is a synonym for "former walk-on." However, it appears that, in basketball, "former walk-on" manages to not be a synonym for "white."
• ESPNU's coverage is... lacking. The worst part is the ridiculous length of commercial breaks.
• Manny Harris is much better than last year (with necessary caveats about level of competition), but he still tries to make things happen more than he needs to, resulting in turnovers or bad shots.
• What's with Jevohn Shepherd changing numbers? That's going to take some getting used to.
• Nobody on Michigan can rebound to save their lives.
• When are the kids on the fringes of the Maize Rage going to realize they look stupider being the only ones not to jump around than they would if they just went with the flow?
• A pair of good performance by the Wolverines, beating the teams they should. Now they have to pull off a surprise or two in the Garden.

Labels: basketball, jevohn shepherd, Manny Harris, still not football, stu douglass, zach novak

Oh god, the football season must be really bad…

Last year, Michigan finished 148th in the nation in Jeff Sagarin’s college basketball rating system. This is a bad thing, and the 10-22 record would certainly speak to that. However, there are a few caveats that may give a little hope to UM basketball fans in regards to the upcoming year. First, last year’s record was compiled against the 7th most-difficult schedule in the nation. The teams with more difficult schedules than the Wolverines are as follows:

1. Arizona (36th in final Sagarin Ratings)
2. Georgia Tech (63rd in final Sagarin Ratings)
3. Southern Cal (26th in final Sagarin Ratings)
4. Texas (6th in final Sagarin Ratings)
5. Tennessee (9th in final Sagarin Ratings)
6. Illinois (73rd in final Sagarin Ratings)

Of course, all of these teams finished well ahead of Michigan in the final standings. A tough strength of schedule helps Sagarin rating, so unless you are a bad team (as Michigan certainly was last year), it makes sense that there is something of a correlation between the two metrics. Michigan, however, went 1-10 against the final top 25 and 1-13 against the final top 50 (the lone win came against Ohio State the night of Rich Rodriguez's introduction).

The schedule isn’t leaps and bound easier this year, however, with games at Maryland and against Duke in the first semester, along with (hopefully) a pair against highly-regarded teams in the Coaches v. Cancer Classic. Duke, UCLA, and Southern Illinois are the other hosts and likely favorites to make it to the Garden. Michigan would face off against UCLA in a hypothetical semi-final where all the favorites win. On top of the conference slate, the Wolverines play UConn in Storrs February 7th.

So why should there be confidence for Michigan basketball fans this year? The most important reason is the coach. John Beilein is undoubtedly a system coach, and a damn good one at that (check out Brian's offensive efficiency conclusions). Having one year to install his system, without players that he recruited, can only be expected to be a disaster (just as Rich Rodriguez is learning now). Now Beilein has been able to prepare his players for a much longer period of time. Both offensively and defensively, the players should improve somewhat.

Speaking of the players, essentially all of the important ones except Ekpe Udoh return, and there are a few notable additions. Beilein recruits Stu Douglass and Zach Novak are long-range bombers with the ability to handle the ball a bit. Both perfectly fit the system. Ben Cronin is a bigman with an outside touch. Laval Lucas-Perry was with the team last year (meaning he already has a year of the system under his belt), but was ineligible to compete because he was a transfer student; he will join the active roster after first semester exams.

So, if I haven’t at least drummed up a bit of excitement for Michigan basketball, I guess there’s none to be found. However, if nothing else, this team deserves support because it wears the maize and blue. The season starts tomorrow with an exhibition against Saginaw Valley. Watch it on BigTenNetwork.com at 7pm. Go Blue!

Labels: basketball, still not football

Basketball prospect Blake McLimans, from Worcester Academy in Worcester, MA, has committed to the Michigan Wolverines. McLimans is a 6-10 big man (a huge need for Michigan) in the class of 2009. McLimans was a weekend visitor for the UM football game against Michigan State, where he decided that he would pick the Wolverines over Providence.

With McLimans's commitment the 2009 class is now full, and John Beilein and Co. will focus on the 2010 class. For more on McLimans, head to UMHoops.com.

Labels: basketball, blake mclimans, commitments, recruiting

Matt Vogrich, a 6-3 shooting guard from Illinois, has pledged his word to become a Michigan Wolverines. Vogrich is Scout's #100 player in the class of 2009. Vogrich joins Darius Morris and Jordan Morgan in MIchigan's 2009 recruiting haul.

Vogrich visited Michigan this weekend, and enjoyed himself enough to offer a commitment to John Beilein and the Michigan Wolverines. For more information on Vogrich (and much better basketball coverage than I could ever provide), head over to UMHoops.com.

Labels: basketball, commitments, matt vogrich, recruiting

Basketball target Darius Morris plans to announce his college decision tomorrow.

Morris attended Michigan summer camp, and sources have indicated that he will pick Michigan. If he does, the first piece to John Beilein's recruiting plan will have landed, and the road will be paved for future recruiting classes.

Labels: basketball, recruiting

Max Pacioretty, Michigan Hockey forward, has decided to forgo his remaining three years of eligibility and sign with the Montreal Canadiens. Pacioretty's departure means that Chris Summers will likely move to forward.

Robin Benzing, a signee in the 2008 class for John Beilein's basketball squad, has been denied initial eligibility by the NCAA. This means that Michigan will likely refocus its recruiting efforts for future seasons, though there will be little effect on this year's team. Even if Benzing was eventually allowed to play, he was expected to have to sit out the 2008-09 season.

Labels: basketball, hockey

The NCAA published its Academic Progress Rate reports yesterday, and Michigan has a clean bill of health. All scores were above the penalty cutoff of 925, and three sports (both genders of golf and women's tennis) recorded perfect scores of 1000.

Since Michigan's main sports have been so attrition-y lately, let's see if they are in danger for next year (when players who left the program this year will count against APR).

Football's score was 951. In the past year, the team has lost Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham to the NFL. Arrington was a fourth-year junior, and probably graduated prior to leaving Michigan. Manningham may have been enough of an academic liability to hurt APR next year. To transfers, Michigan has lost Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) and Justin Boren (Ohio State). I know nothing of their academic prowess, though I would assume that at least Boren was in good standing when he left. Several players have also left the team for other reasons. If Johnny Sears doesn't hurt the APR, I'll be shocked. Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla are the only other two that spring immediately to mind, and I know nothing of their academics either.

Basketball's score was 927, dangerously close to sanctions. With all the people that left the program (Kendric Price, Jerret Smith, Ekpe Udoh, K'Len Morris), I wouldn't be surprised if the team at least gets a warning for next year. At least they're not completely toast like Indiana, already below the cutoff, and going downhill with lots of attrition in this offseason.

Labels: academics, athletics, basketball, football

No but seriously, basketball?

One of the most important aspect of running a successful athletic department is being able to rely on your revenue sports to support everything else that goes on. Under Bill Martin, Michigan has been able to turn from a money sink into one of the nation's most successful athletic programs (monetarily) despite not having a basketball team that has been anywhere close to successful. Thus, if Michigan is able to make the basketball team a big draw, and perennial NCAA tournament participant-type program, it can only continue to help.

Without further introduction, I present the basketball-relevant portion of Bill Martin's interview with the BTN's Dave Revsine:


It is clear that Martin is intent on supporting basketball, and trying to bring success back to the program.

Facilities
Crisler Arena is a dump. Regardless of what Martin says, it really should just be demolished, and the AD should start over from scratch (a few suggestions: smaller size, better concourse layout, and location closer to campus (ok, that one is just a pipe dream)). Failing that, The House that Cazzie Built is eventually going to be overhauled for the better, though definitely not until Michigan Stadium is completed, and probably not until there is a practice facility. The practice facility is apparently ready for approval. The sooner that can be completed, the better for Michigan Hoops. Interesting note: Martin stated in no uncertain terms that the funding for a facility will be ready whenever plans are completed.

Recruiting
Martin states that he doesn't want his coach to recruit players who want to go one-and-done to the pros. Luckily for him, the coach he hired is John Beilein, who does not seem to favor this type of player (and nor does his system). Martin favors the NBA amending its entry rules to require players to spend 3 years in school (I believe they should probably step it up one year at a time).

The Future
Though Beilein was unable to get it done in year one, the improvement made by the team over the course of the year was encouraging, and it is unlikely we will see 2008-09 be a repeat of the epic struggles of 2007-08. With several players accustomed to the system after one year in it, and a few new additions who are good fits for Beileinball, an NIT bid isn't out of the question. Though that may not be good enough for some fans, it is important to remember how far this program had fallen, and realize that it will take some time to rise again.

Udoh
Rumors have been circulating for weeks that Junior-to-be Power Forward Ekpe Udoh intends to transfer from the University of Michigan. This has now become official. While I am not sure he is making the right decision (though UMHoops.com's analysis has certainly gone a long way to convince me), I wish Udoh the best of luck in the future.

Labels: athletics, basketball, bill martin, ekpe udoh, still not football

UM Press Release:
University of Michigan men's basketball coach John Beilein has announced today (Monday, May 5), forward Ekpe Udoh (Edmond, Okla./Santa Fe HS) has made the decision to leave the Wolverines basketball program and transfer to another school. Udoh has not yet made a decision on which school he will attend.

"Ekpe is a fine young man and we thought he made tremendous improvements throughout the season," said Beilein. "I will miss Ekpe as a person and as a player and we hope success will follow him in his future endeavors."

"This was a very difficult decision for me," said Udoh. "I just feel I need to explore other options right now. I had a wonderful experience at Michigan and I want to thank everyone for helping me the last two years. I wish them nothing but success in the future."

In two seasons in Ann Arbor, Udoh did not miss a game playing in 67 consecutive contests, with 31 starts. He averaged 5.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game for the Wolverines. After leading the Big Ten in blocked shots in 2007-08 with 92, Udoh compiled 159 blocks in two seasons ranking him fifth all-time at U-M.

Labels: basketball, personnel, still not football, udoh

...but our coaches aren't. On top of Rich Rodriguez's ongoing lawsuit deliberations with West Virginia University, Coach John Beilein is also paying the Mountaineers for his departure to Crisler Arena.

Don't believe me? The Wizard of Odds has some proof (which they got from West By God Virginia, who, presumably got it from the source).

Perhaps interesting to note: The Bank of Ann Arbor, the institution that allows Beilein to write checks for more than a quarter-million dollars, is owned by Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin.

Labels: basketball, coaching, John Beilein, still not football, WVU hate

With two commitments and a few prospects down, it was a big weekend of change for the recruiting board.

Removed:
KS LB Jaydan Bird. Committed to Oklahoma. Not a huge loss, as I don't think there was ever great mutual interest. He seemed like one of those guys who mention Michigan early in the process to make them sound like big-time prospects.
TX OL Mason Walters. Committed to Texas. Not sure anyone but the Horns ever had a really legit shot at him.

New Information:
MI RB Teric Jones. Freep article on his commitment.
VA QB Kevin Newsome. Track video interview.

Etc.: Wisconsin looking to add some spread? Trotwood-Madison track (Michael Shaw and Chris Freeman). AP Indiana all-state basketball selections (Stuart Douglass special mention, Zach Novak 1st team). Mike Hart will be signing autographs at Briarwood MDen on Saturday. Free Press photo gallery from Saturday's spring practice.

Labels: basketball, chris freeman, football, jaydan bird, kevin newsome, michael shaw, recruiting, teric jones

...a post about a team that wasn't even close to getting there!

Michigan's 2007-08 season was a disappointment by almost any standards. Not only did Michigan not make the postseason, but the Wolverines were well below .500, and lost to opponents both superior and inferior. A lack of senior leadership (Ron Coleman was the team's only graduating player) and overall depth (Michigan had only 9ish scholarship players after several Wolverines left the program) were key factors leading to the poor outcome for the team. A lack of players who were capable of running John Beilein's offensive system, which is heavy on three pointers, was also a stumbling block.

The future, however, is much brighter. Michigan loses only Ronald Coleman as a scholarship player, and has three incoming freshmen who are better fits for the Beilein offense than the players left behind by Tommy Amaker. Ben Cronin, a big man who can shoot, and a pair of shooting guards with long range capabilities in Stu Douglass and Zach Novak spell a brighter future for the team. Additionally, Arizona transfer Laval Lucas-Perry will bring additional talent. Losing Coleman is not a big hit. Though he was recruited as a shooter, he could not hit from the outside consistently enough for Beilein's system.

Roster Analysis - 2008-09

Class of '12	Class of '11	Class of '10	Class of '09
Stuart Douglass	Manny Harris	DeShawn Sims	C.J. Lee
Zach Novak	Kelvin Grady	Ekpe Udoh	Jevohn Shepherd
Ben Cronin	Anthony Wright	Zach Gibson
	Laval Lucas-Perry

With 13 scholarships allowed for the team, Michigan will either be able to take one more freshman next year, or bank the schollie for the following recruiting class and give it to preferred walkon Eric Puls. Please note that the roster on MGoBlue is terrible, so this may not be entirely accurate.

Minutes Played: Top 4 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Grady).
Points Scored: Top 6 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Grady, Gibson, Wright).
Steals: Top 5 return. (Harris, Sims, Udoh, Lee, Grady).
Blocks: Top 6 return. (Udoh, Sims, Gibson, Harris, Wright, Shepherd).
Assists: Top 3 return. (Grady, Harris, Lee).

The main scary part is assist-to-turnover ratio. While the top two (Kelvin Grady and C.J. Lee) return, Coleman was third, and at 1.25 the only other player with more than one assist per turnover. Fans can take heart in the fact that two of the top three Michigan players in terms of turnovers (Manny Harris and Kelvin Grady) were just freshman, and it stands to reason that they have nowhere to go but up.

Labels: basketball, statistics, still not football

I can only blog the first half, but hopefully it turns out like last time I was only able to blog half of a game against Iowa.

12:04 PM Tipoff is won by Iowa.
18:10 1H Iowa finally draws first blood on a drive to the hoop. Udoh get some post points to answer.
17:30 1H Iowa misses another open look for three. Michigan has given up a couple of those, they're lucky Iowa hasn't capitalized.
16:57 1H Another open Iowa look that Michigan is lucky they missed. Udoh draws the loose-ball foul on the rebound,
16:21 1H Michigan gets his first lead of the game on a Manny Harris jumper. Michigan forces Iowa to run down the clock and take a DEEP three that is missed.
14:34 1H Michigan's strong man defense puts a lot of pressure on the ball, forcing a turnover. Anthony Wright capitalizes on the other end with three. The defense is looking good other than the giving up of open threeball looks earlier.
14:33 1H Timeout. 10-4 Michigan.
13:41 1H Iowa nails a threeball, then there's a TV timeout on a Michigan foul when the Hawkeyes get the ball back. 10-7 Michigan.
12:37 1H More strong man defense from Michigan leads to a Hawkeye turnover. Deshawn Sims hits a jumper on the break. Fortunately for the Wolverines, Iowa is stone cold from the floor.
12:03 1H Three ball is good for Manny Harris. After a couple more missed Iowa FGs, Deshawn Sims is fouled rebounding the ball.
TV Timeout. 15-7 Michigan 11:39 1H.
11:25 1H Manny Harris comes of the dribble-handoff screen and nails a fairly deep three. Michigan 4-7 from the arc. More good defensive pressure from Michigan. They knock the ball out of bounds with 12 of the shot clock and Michigan steals off the inbound, leading to more Manny Harris points.
9:56 1H Iowa gets a switch off a screen, adn Freeman uses a nice stepback move on Anthony Wright.
9:30 1H David Merritt makes an appearance!
9:10 1H Commentator notices that Michigan is showing much more hustle. the 22-9 lead is certainly evidence of that.
8:43 1H Where was this defense all year? Obviously the poor shooting so far by Iowa has helped, but Michigan is causing turnovers left and right. this time, it's a 3-second violation.
7:52 1H Really nice play by Iowa to get Michigan scrambling, then a fake shot to feed down low for an easy deuce.
22-11 Michigan 7:23 1H.
7:01 1H Not a great offensive foul called, drawn by Ekpe Udoh. I'll take it. Deshawn Sims gets a three on the other side.
6:19 1H A better call this time, as Justin Johnson's shoulder is lowered and the forearm extended. You really don't want to get an offensive foul that far from the basket.
5:35 1H Loose ball foul on Iowa, though I think the play should have been called out of bounds off the top of the backboard first.
4:43 1H Michigan is coming back to its regular form, as they turn it over for the second consecutive trip down the floor. Iowa is getting a chance to stay in this game. An and-1 for the Hawks does just that.
4:25 1H The first free throw for either team is missed. Manny Harris gets a deep 2 on the other end.
TV Timeout. 3:54 1H 27-15 Michigan. Iowa shooting 2 when we get back.
3:15 1H Cyrus Tate heads to the foul line once more. This time it was a pretty bad call, as Ekpe Udoh kept his arms completely vertical the whole time. Tate gets both.
2:55 1H Ekpe Udoh's second foul comes on an illegal screen. Michigan's at-least-once-per-game scoring drought has begun.
2:24 1H Zach Gibson ends the drought with authority, getting a big dunk and the foul. He does work on the other end as well, accepting a charge from Tony Freeman.
1:53 1H Michigan's strong defense again forces a bad shot by Iowa. The ricochet of the rim ends up out of bounds, off the Hawkeyes.
1:08 1H Gibson nearly blocks a runner off the glass, but it drops for Iowa, and they are back within 8.
0:39 1H Offensive rebound, true hustle play by Gibson. Tate fouls Deshawn Sims. He'll shoot 1-and-1.
0:18 1 H after a good half of defense, Michigan lets a three ball shooter get wide open again, and this time Iowa capitalizes. Zach Gibson finishes the half with a field goal.
Halftime. Michigan leads 34-25.

Labels: basketball, liveblog

Chesterton Indiana shooting guard Zach Novak (6-4, 215) has committed to Coach John Beilein of the Michigan basketball program. He is the third player committed to the Wolverines.

His local paper does not like to spellcheck. Like, even for the name of the person the article is about. He was an Indiana All-Star as a junior. Novak is a three point shooter who will fit in well with the Michigan team, other than the fact that he is actually capable of making the occasional shot.

Labels: basketball, commitments, recruiting, zach novak

If you really want to know about tempo-free statistics, you should really head over to Basketball Prospectus. Anything and everything you would ever want to know about the statistical analysis of basketball is there. Since the Big Ten Wonk left his blogspot home and moved to BP, there hasn't really been a focus on the statistics of Big Ten Basketball lately.

I'm just starting to get into this and I haven't really gone too deep into the statistics. For those of you who like charts (and/or AJAX filled Web2.0 applications) I compiled some basic tempo free stats online. You can see them here. The conference sheet is sorted by Possessions and the U of M sheet is sorted by effective field goal percentage.

If you want a quick crash course on tempo-free statistics, I recommend checking out the tutorial on Big Ten Wonk.

From looking at Michigan's stats compared to the rest of the conference, I'm cautiously optimistic. One of the biggest complaints I had from the Amaker era was the frequency of turnovers, which killed any chance of Michigan winning. Michigan this year is number 3 in the conference in Turnovers per Possession (TOPP on the chart). Another complaint is that the games were boring. Michigan versus Northwestern did not even pretend to be a basketball game as both teams pointlessly dribbled or passed the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock ran down. Michigan is 3rd in the conference in possessions behind only Purdue and Illinois. This does not mean they are good, but it's more a matter of personal preference. I like a smooth, flowing game; the change is like going from Mike DeBord to Rich Rodriguez.

Where Michigan is crashing and burning is shooting the ball. They have the worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in conference. eFG% even appropriately weights the benefits of 3pt shots and it still doesn't bring them up. Michigan is shooting about 46% when the median is 50%. There could be a silver lining on this horrible showing. Michigan is 4-1 when their eFG% is greater than 50%. It isn't ridiculous to think that once Beilein gets his players in and really gets the freshman and sophomore class shooting well this team will contend.

Beilein has stopped a lot of the bad the Amaker left him. He just needs to get his players playing his system and things should look up. If Michigan shoots well, they can beat some good teams (see Ohio State). I think most of the pain from this season is coming from square pegs meeting round holes.

I'll try to dig a little deeper through the week and look up some defensive numbers. The spreadsheet is saved on GoogleDocs, so if anyone wants to put together the team table for their (or any) team, let me know and you can be added as a collaborator.

Labels: basketball, I posted, John Beilein, statistics, tempo free