Michigan has been a disappointment this year without a doubt. However, their compatriots to the South have been something of a disappointment as well, though not to nearly the degree of the Wolverines. Ohio State entered the year returning nearly everyone off a team that had played for the national title the past two years, yet got destroyed in Los Angeles, and went down on their home turf to Penn State. that said, Michigan doesn't stand a real chance...
Offense Terrelle Pryor's ascent took place a year earlier than expected, but take place it did. He is now the triggerman for Ohio State, and does just about everything from running to passing to just handing the ball off to Beanie Wells. Speaking of Wells, he's done it all for Ohio State - on the rare occasion he was completely healthy. The two areas of weakness for the OSU offense are the wideouts and offensive line. The line has ranged from bad to mediocre all year, with brief forays into the area of "passable." They are the most culpable party for each of Ohio State's losses. Their pass blocking has improved since the USC game, helped in large part by Terrelle Pryor's ability to move the pocket and escape pressure. However, the run blocking still leaves something to be desired, though Pryor and Beanie can make do with the holes that are opening up in front of them. The wideouts are talented but inconsistent, with problems ranging from drops to missed cuts.
Michigan's defensive strength is the line, which should help them against OSU's offensive weak point, the O-line. However, many schools have schemed to minimize Michigan's advantage here (most frustratingly Toledo) with all manner of half-rollouts and quick passes, which are the strength of Pryor's game, unfortunately. Ohio State also seems poised to attack Michigan's weak safeties and linebackers. I've had nightmares for weeks thinking about the Wolverines' poor tackling against the Buckeyes.
Defense The Ohio State defense has been pretty good for most of the year, with a few notable exceptions. Those exceptions include USC, who simply had their way with OSU - on both sides of the ball - and teams with mobile quarterbacks, like Ohio and Illinois. Other teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against Ohio State, however. Through the air, Malcolm Jenkins and a rotating cast of nickel players have shut down opposing passing attacks.
Alas, Michigan has neither the plethora of talent that the Trojans boast, nor the mobile signal-caller of Ohio or Illinois. I don't particularly fancy the though of Nick Sheridan slinging the ball into the teeth of that Buckeye secondary, either. This essentially boils down to Michigan's only hope being a healthy Brandon Minor, and a host of short passes (many of them screens) and maybe a guest appearance by Justin Feagin running the zone-read. Ohio state has had their share of missed tackles this year, too, and strong running by the likes of Brandon Minor and Greg Mathews should result in some YAC.
Special Teams This section hasn't appeared in any previews so far this year, but the Ohio State special teams have been notable in their boom-or-bust characteristic (sounds familiar, no?). Of course, Ohio State's ST units haven't been as volatile as Michigan's and have been much more heavy on the good things, like blocked punts and returns for touchdown.
Michigan's main goal in this facet of the game is to not have a punt blocked, and not lose the ball on a return. Playing against a coach like Tressel, special teams play and changing field position should be a huge factor.
Predictions Michigan's only passing touchdown comes either in the first quarter or on a screen pass. Stevie Brown intercepts a pass, but makes enough mistakes in coverage to make up for it. Michigan keeps this one a little closer than the experts think, losing 31-17.
Over the course of the year, Michigan fans have seen what the Wolverines have been offering on the field. What they may not be quite as familiar with is their counterpart down South, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fortunately, I've been scouting the Bucks all year for the "Across the Border" series with Buckeye Commentary. What has each game showed us that is relevant to Saturday? Take a look:
Youngstown State Not much, aside from serving as a stark contrast to Michigan’s opener. The two programs are starting off on a completely different plane, and a dominant performance from Ohio State puts the fear of God in Wolverines fans.
We do know that Michigan fans will probably grumble discontentedly when Terrelle Pryor does something of note against Michigan on November 22.
One area that might actually be relevant is also the offensive line of Ohio state being rather underwhelming. Presumably, however, they will cut down on penalties and other mistakes over the course of the year. Of course, there were also other occasions where the OSU line gave Boeckman about 3 weeks to throw the ball downfield. We’ll see which is more indicative of the actual quality of the offensive line when the Bucks see some better competition.
Again, there are caveats about quality of competition, but OSU was also able to harass YSU’s quarterback all day long.
Ohio Not much, really. Again, Ohio State faced a team that was nothing like Michigan, and the level of competition was very low. Unless Beanie’s foot injury is a lot more severe than the public currently is aware (which I doubt), Michigan will not see an Ohio State team that is minus its offensive catalyst and best player.
However, the pass protection problems persist from last week. Maybe with a more reliable running threat to take some additional heat off the QB, the Buckeyes will be able to settle down and protect the passer, but for now, I wouldn’t be confident they can do this. Of course, Michigan’s offense is terrible bordering on pitiful, so it is likely that, even if Michigan finds itself with a lead in the Shoe on November 22, Jim Tressel will keep pounding away until 3rd and long. With little threat of Michigan building (or extending) a lead, Tresselball will likely be in full force for the greatest rivalry in all of sport.
The other thing noticed was the success of the Bobcats’ spread offense. Even with a backup quarterback in the game (note: still better than either of Michigan’s starting QB options), the OU offense ran pretty smoothly, carrying an upset bid into the fourth quarter. Of course, Jackson could run and not throw, and Michigan’s QBs can hardly do either. Is OSU the new Michigan in terms of inability to defend the spread? Wolverine fans are certainly hoping so. Also, they are hoping that their own offensive line stops sucking.
USC USC gave us the blueprint for beating Ohio State: play them when they don’t have the services of their best player, and have more talent than them at nearly every position. OK, so maybe that doesn’t realistically tell the 2008 Michigan Wolverines how they can beat Ohio State, but it does show us that the Buckeyes can be beaten, and handily.
Several flaws with Ohio State’s team were accentuated: the quarterback(s), the offensive line, and to a lesser extent, the play calling. Of course, Jim Tressel always saves his most creative gameplan for the Wolverines, but if nothing else, this has given the Michigan coaching staff an idea of what buttons they can press to stress the weaknesses of Ohio State.
Troy There are a few key notes that Michigan fans should have taken from this game: 1. Terrelle Pryor is likely to be OSU’s starter for the remainder of the year. The Wolverines had better get some practice stopping a running quarterback. 2. The Ohio State offensive line’s struggles early in the year might speak to an actual problem with the unit, rather than shaking out some early-season cobwebs.
I’m not willing to say that Michigan is likely to beat Ohio State this year, but it is starting to seem like Jim Tressel is approaching becoming a new Lloyd Carr. Letting clearly overmatched opponents stay in a game much longer than they should be, laying an egg on national TV last week with arguably his most talented team ever. Of course, some of these problems will be solved with the return of Beanie Wells, but the trajectory isn’t favorable for The Senator.
Minnesota First things first, it tells us that the Ohio State offense is far better with Beanie in the backfield. If he can stay healthy through the entire year, OSU shouldn’t have any more struggles like they did in the three game stretch between Ohio and Troy.
It also gives us our first chance to see an opponent that Michigan and Ohio State will have in common in 2008. Sure, you can’t compare boxscores side-by-side, but you can (eventually) see who actually played a better game against the Gophers, taking all factors into account.
Still, Ohio State didn’t look overly physical yet again (though better than they did against Troy), and I wonder if they’ll snap out of it during the course of the season. If not, is it possible that they’ll lack physicality against the Wolverines, or (the more likely scenario) be a little TOO physical and aggressive, either being susceptible to misdirection or liable to commit penalties (the “Sparty, No!” syndrome, as it’s known in Ann Arbor).
Wisconsin The Ohio State offense is much better when they have both Beanie and Pryor available. Assuming those two are in the game against Michigan, Ohio State will definitely manage to score some points. However, The Buckeyes somehow managed to score less against the Badgers than did Michigan’s dysfunctional offense, so the Buckeyes are far from unstoppable. However, given Michigan’s troubles stopping Illinois, it could be a long night when there are more talented players plugged in.
Defensively, there is going to be yardage available against Ohio State. Michigan’s weakness is in the interior offensive line, and Ohio State’s defensive tackles, while they’re pretty good, did not dominate by any means against the Badgers. The Wisconsin offense also did its best when relying on misdirection, which is essentially the cornerstone of Michigan’s offense.
Purdue Offensively, the Buckeyes really shouldn’t worry. If the offensive line plays well one game all year, they’ll save it for Michigan. However, there is something of a disturbing trend developing here.
Defensively, the Buckeyes showed what they’re capable of doing if they play up to their potential. If they’re in peak form against the Wolverines, maybe Michigan should just punt on first down every series. Wait – then the Buckeyes might just block it for a TD
Michigan State If last week showed us that, with a little bad luck and some inconsistency, the Buckeyes are beatable, the game against Michigan State did the exact opposite. Whereas last week the offense sputtered and a blocked punt provided the only points on the day, this week the fumble returns and such were just the icing on a particularly delicious cake in the eyes of OSU fans.
Alas, this is the effort Michigan is more likely to see out of Ohio State (the Wolverines and Buckeyes always get the other’s best effort), instead of the Purdue sleeper. However, Michigan fans can look at the last two Ohio State games and see that it is indeed possible to beat the Buckeyes if they don’t show up to play.
Penn State Though the Buckeyes have only lost two games so far, a couple teams have given a blueprint for what Michigan needs to do to beat Ohio State. First, stopping the run is paramount. Penn State and USC both did this, and it led to their success. Not letting OSU’s WRs behind the defensive secondary will give Pryor more difficult throws to make, and he has shown that he doesn’t yet have the experience to hit covered guys with regularity. Purdue was an example of Pryor’s occasional freshman struggles bringing the team down, though Ohio State’s defense and special teams still managed to win the game for them.
Of course, the offensive line is Ohio State’s key. If they put it all together for one more game this entire year, it will be against Michigan. Therefore, Michigan likely has to commit a few more guys to stopping the run, and hope that Pryor makes enough freshman mistakes to hold his offense back.
Northwestern The Buckeye offensive line is bad (a relative term in this case, of course), and probably isn’t going to get any better this year. Michigan will provide the best defensive line Ohio State has seen since USC, or maybe Penn State. Michigan should be able to get into the backfield. However, Ohio State has had success this year because of Wells’s and Pryor’s abilities to make plays even when there are players in the backfield. Michigan has been a terrible tackling team this year. I foresee a pretty good offensive day for Ohio State.
Defensively, Ohio State has shown they are capable of shutting down unconventional offenses – though it sometimes takes them a quarter or two. All year, Michigan has shown they can score – but only in the first quarter. The Wolverines will have to pull out all the stops to get a lead early in The Game if they want to stand a chance. The Buckeyes do face their second of three consecutive shotgun-option offenses this week, however, so they may come out pre-adjusted.
Illinois Well, considering my prediction above [ed. - OSU pounds Michigan], I don’t think Michigan stands too much of a chance in this game. However, we did learn a couple things (relevant, hopefully) about Ohio State from this game. I’m not sure how many tackles the Buckeyes will be missing against Michigan, though.
First, they are definitely susceptible to the run, especially when there’s an option look mixed in. Michigan has less talent for running that type of offense than does Illinois, but if Brandon Minor is healthy, Michigan should at least be able to move the ball a little bit.
Considering Nick Sheridan will likely start for Michigan, I expect to see something more like the offense against Utah or Northwestern (bad) than against Minnesota (good).
Coming into this year, Michigan and Northwestern had similar expectations. Both were projected to finish near the upper-middle of the conference, and perhaps even both make it to January bowl games. Of course, things didn't exactly turn out that way. Northwestern has perhaps exceeded expectations, its only losses so far coming to Ohio State, Michigan State, and... er... Indiana. Michigan's season has unfolded in the opposite direction. After reaching 2-2 on the season, back-to-back demoralizing losses against Illinois and Toledo initiated a tailspin that halted only this past week, with a win at Minnesota. Next year, look for Michigan to try to replicate the Northwestern model for success (ridiculously easy OOC schedule).
Offense The 'Cats are hurting on this side of the ball, with their top two running backs lost for the year. Tyrell Sutton (2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year) and Omar Conteh (who stepped in for Sutton much of last year, including a 115-yard day against Michigan) will be replaced by sophomore Stephen Simmons and recently-converted WR Jeravin Matthews, a true freshman. Even before the top two went out for the year, Northwestern was near average in rushing, and that production can be expected to decrease without two talented players. In the passing game, Northwestern has relied on both CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka. Kafka has been more dangerous as a runner than a passer in his time filling in for an injured Bacher. Speaking of Bacher, there's always the Official CJ Bacher Interception Statistic to draw on: when he starts and throws 1 pick or less, the Wildcats win. However, it is unclear exactly how healthy Bacher will be this weekend, though he should be available. Northwestern's top 3 receivers are Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. All have seen their production decrease sans Bacher.
To me, it looks like a Minnesota to me. Without a credible running threat in the backfield, Northwestern's offense looks a lot like that of the Gophers. That, of course, brings up the question of which quarterback starts for the Wildcats. With Kafka, they have a mobile signal-caller that isn't the passing threat (and we saw how much success Michigan had defending against Justin Siller), and with Bacher, they have... GopherClone. That team spread the field and passed, without much of a run threat (though their offense is based on theRR spread, and we all know that Rodriguez would love to run the ball as much as possible). Either way, it looks like Northwestern's options are limited. I'd like to think Michigan will be able to dial up a similar gameplan to last week, and trust their guys to man up on wideouts that aren't as athletic.
Defense Northwestern partisans have been hailing new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz as the second coming of Christ. Of course, the pragmatist would note that his early-season numbers were built up against the #111 offense (Syracuse), the #87 offense (Duke), the #49 offense... in 1-AA (Southern Illinois), and the #71 offense (Ohio). Two of Northwestern's top defenders, Malcolm Arrington and Vince Browne, have been lost for the season. The Wildcats shouldn't be expected to get tons of stops against any offense with legitimate threats on the ground and through the air.
That brings us to the Michigan offense, whose best threat through the air so far this season has been Steven Threet. When he missed time last week, Nick Sheridan filled in most competently. However, whoever ends up getting the start for Michigan this week will likely be operating without the services of Brandon Minor, who has emerged as Michigan's best threat of moving the ball on the ground. Michigan's offense might be something of a mirror image of Northwestern's at this point, though I think Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw bring something to the table that Northwestern's third-string running back may not. However, last week's performance by the quarterback was probably a one-time deal, and the offense should regress this week.
Other Stuff On top of injury news, this week may hinge on intangibles more than any other so far this year. Was Michigan's performance last week the sign of better things to come with gained confidence, or just a one-week anomaly? Will the weather have an adverse effect on either team's offense? These can't be accounted for in a preview, however comprehensive it may be (and I'm under no illusion that this is a comprehensive preview).
Predictions At least 3 (but probably 4) players take snaps for Michigan. Northwestern has trouble moving the ball on the ground with anyone other than Mike Kafka, but they have a successful game through the air. Michigan drops one to the Wildcats, 24-10.
When I originally previewed Minnesota in the summer, I knew they'd be improved, but I don't think anyone could have predicted the huge step forward they have taken this year. The Gophers have gone from 1-11 to 7-2, one of the greatest turnarounds in recent history. How have they done it? Mostly through turnovers and taking care of the ball. If Michigan wants to win in the Metrodome tomorrow, they'd best hold on to the rock.
Offense The majority of Minnesota's offense goes through QB Adam Weber. Weber is having a so-so statistical year, coming in at 36th in the country in passing efficiency, but it's what he's not doing that's most notable: turning the ball over. Last year, he threw 19 interceptions, and this year he has been picked off just four times. His main target is notable white wideout Eric Decker, who, while nicked up, is expected to play this week. Other notable receivers include Ben Kuznia (also white), DeLeon Eskridge (not white, and also a tailback), and Nick Tow-Arnett (also white, but understandably - he's a tight end). Aside from Decker, however, it's not the wide receivers that make the passing game successful, it's Weber's distribution that's paramount. If Decker is still a little banged up, Michigan may be able to take advantage somewhat (he has nearly triple the number of receptions as Kuznia).
In the run game, there were many predictions of doom when Duane Bennett went down against Bowling Green, and was lost for the year. However, DeLeon Eskridge has stepped in and performed admirably. In fact, he's getting 4.2 ypc, only slightly worse than Bennett's 4.4, against better competition.Minnesota's worst rushing games came against Ohio State... Indiana(?) and... Montana State? They've gotten worse over the course of the year, and that's hopefully something the Wolverines can capitalize on.
Defense The Gophers' main weapon on defense is the takeaway. They're currently 1st in the nation in turnovers gained, and 2nd in overall turnover margin. They're actually at or around middle of the pack by most other defensive metrics, such as rushing defense (53rd), Pass efficiency defense (51st), and total defense (65th), all against a fairly weak schedule. This means that if a team can hold onto the ball, they stand a good chance of moving it down the field against the Gophers. Of course, that means nothing to Michigan, as the Wolverines can't hold onto the ball to save their collective lives.
The Gophers have faced some fairly anemic offense, but none so bad as that of Michigan. Add in the fact that it is Nick Sheridan expecting to start in place of the oft-injured Steven Threet, and Wolverines fans are likely in for a long day. Of course, turnovers-as-defense isn't necessarily sustainable, and the Gophers were bad in that respect last year, so perhaps Michigan can get lucky and not turn it over too much.
Predictions Michigan's starting QB throws at least 2 interceptions. Eric Decker cannot finish the game because he is too hurt. The Wolverines lose the jug, by a score of 31-13.
When I previewed Purdue in the summer, I didn't think they'd be a very good team this year. However, the depths of their fall have been a surprise even to me. With a new coach stepping up next year, are we witnessing the end of the "Purdue-as-midtier-team" era? It certainly seems like it. This game looks like Michigan's best chance to get another win by the end of the year, and injuries may play a key role in this weekend's matchup.
Offense Purdue's offense under Joe Tiller has been characterized as "basketball on grass." The pass-happy spread attack made Tiller's career, and he has seen success in West Lafayette, though not so much in recent years. This year, the Purdue offense hasn't been very good. Throw in the fact that starting quarterback Curtis Painter is not expected to be available and it's bad new Boilers. By the way, the backup quarterback, Joey Elliott is out too. That leaves OLSM product Justin Siller, who moved back to QB from running back just a couple of weeks ago, to run the offense. Don't be surprised if there's tons of Kory Sheets in the gameplan Saturday.
Defense The Boilermakers' defense hasn't been performing well, but they have faced a couple of pretty good offenses in Oregon (whom they held to only 32 points in two overtimes) and Central Michigan (whose production has fallen off slightly this year). Notre Dame managed to put up 38 on Purdue without the help of ridiculous field position, though the Irish did get a defensive touchdown. Regardless, the Wolverines are probably the most inept offense Purdue will face. The Boilers' talent level is low, however, Michigan should be able to put something together, particularly using the MINOR SMASH offense.
Predictions Purdue's offense is held under 250 yards. Steven Threet doesn't throw an interception. Michigan wins 23-10.
When I previewed Michigan State in the summer, I really wasn't that enamored with the Spartans. Watching them over the course of the year, they have had moderate success, which may seem to run counter to what I thought about the team. However, in their biggest games, Michigan State has failed to impress anyone. Essentially, they are who we thought they were.
Talking with State News writer Cash Kruth, my opinion of the Spartans still remains pretty much the same: they are a mediocre team, not a good one. Their strength of schedule speaks to this, and against real competition, they have struggled for the most part. Of course, a mediocre team should be able to beat a bad one, namely the Michigan Wolverines.
Offense The Spartan offense is centered around one player: Javon Ringer. Ringer leads the nation in rushing yardage, with 1179 yards so far this year (Donald Brown of Connecticut has 1174 yards in one fewer game), and he runs for about 150 yards per Spartan contest. The offense is heavily reliant on Ringer, and in his two worst contests, the Spartans have lost for the only two times this season. It is important to note of Ringer, however, that he has 60 more carries than the next-closest player in Division 1-A. He has the lowest yards-per-carry average (4.48) of any player in the top 40 in rushing yardage, and most have him beat by a significant margin.
So why do the Spartans run Ringer so often, if they're not reaping great benefits every time? Looking at Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, the wideouts, you'd think that MSU would pass it more. However, when you approach the situation under center, you realize that Brian Hoyer is often as much a liability for Michigan State as he is an asset. Despite having fairly good weapons, including Javon Ringer to take off some of the pressure, Brian Hoyer is 72nd in the country in passing efficiency. This is all despite rarely getting sacked.
So Michigan has a gameplan for beating Michigan State: stop Javon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to beat you. He hasn't been able to single-handedly take down a team yet (his best opportunity, at Cal, saw him complete less than 42% of his passes) and is unlikely to suddenly start doing so. Michigan has already beaten a team of this mold, and Wisconsin had a significantly better offensive line, a wider variety of options at running back, and a more robust over-the-middle passing game, which thus far has been Michigan's biggest problem in coverage.
One other thing to note about the Spartan offense is the turnover rate. As much as Michigan has coughed the ball up this year, Michigan State has had troubles of their own, especially when Hoyer is forced to throw the ball (6-4 TD-int ratio). They had 3 fumbles lost against Ohio State, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.
Defense MSU's defense has been at best okay, though strength of schedule again comes into play. Indiana scored their most points of the season against D-1A competition against MSU (29), Cal their third most (38, though the other two higher scores were against Washington State and Colorado State), but they gave up season-lows in point total to Notre Dame (7) and Florida Atlantic (0). The Atlantic game may have been something of an outlier, as their pass-happy attack was unlikely to find success in a monsoon regardless of who they were playing, but results speak for themselves.
The strength of Michigan's offense is the pass game, like the strength of MSU's defense is pass effeiciency. However, despite Michigan's obvious offensive struggles this year, the Wolverine pass game may be one of the best the Spartans have faced so far. If nothing else, there is the biggest array of receiving talent this side of OSU, and if Steven Threet is healthy, the passer shouldn't be too shabby. Of course, this all goes to hell if Nick Sheridan has to play any significant time. MSU's secondary is strongest at the safeties (if you consider any position where Kendell Davis Clark is a starter a "strength" - though I admit I haven't extensively seen him play at safety), so Michigan should have some ability to attack the perimeter on the sideline passes and wheel routes that have thus far been their most successful plays already.
In the run game, Michigan State has no been so successful on the defensive side of the ball. Cal and Ohio State went for over 200 on them, even Eastern Michigan went for 127, Shonn Greene of Iowa tore them up for 157, and only Notre Dame had a really bad day against them, which was partially due to the Spartans getting an early lead, followed immediately by Jimmy Clausen taking 4 bad sacks. The Irish put up only 16 yards rushing, though that came on merely 22 attempts (including sacks). Michigan might be the most anemic rushing attack that MSU has faced so far this season, but the Spartans have shown that, given the chance, a run game can succeed against them.
Michigan's gameplan will likely be to get the ball to the outside, and get playmakers in space. However, when the run game came to life a bit in the first quarter against Penn State, we saw that Brandon Minor, for all his fumbling troubles, may give Michigan an oportunity to actually move the ball without throwing. A healthy mix of plays, and passing to set up the run a bit, may speak to Michigan's advantage. As I said earlier this week, Michigan's offense this year might not be as good as West Virginia's ever was under Rich Rodriguez, but the man certainly knows how to gash a Dantonio defense either way. He might be able to scheme to keep that trend going.
Predictions The Michigan offense will reach a new season high in terms of total yardage. Martavious Odoms will get his first touchdown as a Wolverine. The Michigan defense or special teams will score on their own, or at least get the ball on Michigan State's side of the 50 for the offense. There will be at least 2 "Sparty, No" moments. Michigan wins, 28-20.
When I previewed Penn State in the summer, I knew the Nittany Lions would be good. Did I know they'd be this good? Maybe not, but I certainly thought they'd be undefeated at this point in the season. PSU has run roughshod over pretty much every challenger in their way, primarily on the strength of QB Daryll Clark. Michigan would have to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the year so far to even stay within 20 of the Nittany Lions tomorrow afternoon.
Offense Daryll Clark, perhaps most memorable to Michigan fans for being the second QB knocked out of the game the last time the Wolverines traveled to Happy Valley, has emerged as one of the premier signal-callers in the conference, if not the nation. He is reminiscent of Michael Robinson in directing Penn State's Spread HD offense: he might not be the most skilled passer in the world, but Robinson proved a few years ago that it isn't necessary to run a successful offense. The two-headed monster of Evan Royster and Stefphon Green that PSU fans predicted coming into the year has been primarily the Evan Royster show, with Green as more of a backup and situational player. On the wings, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams return for their 500th year as starters for Penn State. Their distribution of catches is disturbingly even, ranging from 21 to 23. Derrick Williams, with the most catches, has the fewest yards, though part of that may be due to the fact that he's manning the underappreciated Steve Breaston 2006 role for PSU. The offensive line is doing well itself, having ceded the 12th fewest sacks in Division I-A, and earning the 12th most rushing yards.
For this specific matchup, I would like to hope that Michigan can at least slow down the rushing attack. The Wolverines' DL is among the best Penn State has seen so far this year, but with the way Juice Williams owned the Wolverines, I don't think Clark should struggle to get his team moving the ball on the ground. In the secondary, Boubacar Cissoko got some valuable experience last week in place of Donovan Warren, and if Warren returns this week, the corners should be able to be in position to stop the spread. As always, it's the duty of the safeties and linebackers to strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans.
Defense The losses up front have not harmed the Nittany Lions like it seemed like they would early in the year. Chris Baker, Devon Still, and a host of other players have been replaced admirably by Aaron Maybin, Josh Gaines, and others. The one disappointment on that front, however, has been Maurice Evans. After a stellar 2007, he has yet to produce for Penn State this season. PSU's linebackers have been led by Navorro Bowman. In the secondary, Penn State is in the top 10 in pass efficiency defense, but significantly worse in overall pass defense - that indicates little more than the fact that teams have been forced to pass their way out of big holes against PSU.
Michigan's offense, if it wants to succeed at all, needs to get on the scoreboard early in this game. Penn State's defense has succeeded mostly in preventing teams from playing a balanced offensive scheme. Of course, Michigan is unlikely to be able to run against Penn State either way. Martavious Odoms's return is important, because it gives Steven Threet more ability to pass down the field and open up the run game. The possibility of Terrance Robinson and Justin Feagin finally playing this week also triples Michigan's number of viable options in the slot.
Predictions Someone other than Sam McGuffie is Michigan's leading rusher. Daryll Clark has at least 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. Michigan keeps it a little closer than expected, but loses 38-17.
When I previewed Toledo in the summer, it appeared as though they may be one of the very few easy games for Michigan in 2008. The Rockets have gone 1-4 so far, with the lone victory coming against the moribund Eagles of Eastern Michigan. We spoke to Jason Mack of the Independent Collegian to give us the latest on the Rockets, and it doesn't really look like Toledo should be too great a challenge for Michigan. However, if Michigan has shown one thing this year, it's that there are no sure things for the 2008 Wolverines.
Offense The Rockets are 66th in the nation in scoring offense, despite putting up 41 on Eastern Michigan in 54 on Fresno State (in 2 overtimes). They were blanked against Ball State (a fringe top-25 team, but one known for its offense, not stellar D), and put up 16 points in games against Arizona and a 3-score loss(!) to Florida International(!!). Aaron Opelt is the Rockets' starter, passing for 869 yards so far on 166 attempts (5.23 ypa). Most of his passes have gone to junior Stephen Williams and senior Nick Moore. On the ground, DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams have gotten the lion's share of carries. Collins appears to be infinitely better than Williams, averaging 7.42 ypc on far fewer carries than those on which Williams is netting 4.11 ypc. Collins missed the FIU game and was limited against Ball State.
In short, the Rockets aren't exceptional on offense. They run a pass-oriented scheme with lots of spread formations. Regardless, they haven't spread the ball around much, and haven't put up tons of points on anyone. Michigan will be by far the best defense they have faced this year. However, they run a lot of quick passes which may neutralize the Wolverines' advantage in the trenches.
Defense Toledo is 89th in rush defense and 109th in pass efficiency defense. This is bad. Considering the competition they've played, which includes such offensive juggernauts as Eastern Michigan (to whom they gave up about 130 yards passing and rushing, which is below their season average), and Florida International (to whom they gave up 98 yards passing (40 yards below FIU's season average) and 141 yards rushing (55 yards more than FIU's season average) - and still managed to give up 35 points). So, the defense isn't great. Or good. Or passable.
Michigan's run game should have another opportunity to get itself moving. We'll see if that actually happens. If it doesn't, predict pain for the rest of the year.
Predictions Michigan gains more fumbles than it gives away(!). The Wolverines have 3 rushers go over 50 yards. Michigan wins, 34-9.
When I previewed Illinois in the summer, I said that the Illini would take fairly significant steps back on each side of the ball. With Rashard Mendenhall not longer carrying the rock, Juice Williams's questionable arm would be thrust into the forefront, and J Leman would no longer be the American Hero of the defense. With no Illinois representative available for a podcast interview ([STUDENT PUBLICATION REDACTED] is the only one to deny such a request so far), we haven't been able to get much more updated information on the boys from Champaign than from watching their games ourselves, and from what can be gleaned from the internets.
Illinois currently sits at 2-2, and ironically the Illini have looked more impressive in their losses than their wins. The losses have been competitive battles against a pair of top-10 teams in Missouri and Penn State, while the losses have been against 1-AA Eastern Illinois, where they gave up 21 points, and Louisiana-Lafayette, which came in a 20-17 squeaker. This game is important to Illinois to notch their first Big Ten win and avoid starting conference play in a huge hole.
Offense
With the departure of Rashard Mendenhall and continuing emergence of Arrelious Be
nn, most predicted prior to the season that Juice Williams would now be the featured cog in Illinois' offense. Through 4 games last year, he had attempted 79 passes, and this year, he has thrown 116, so yeah. However, 42 of those attempts came in a comeback attempt against Missouri, a game he missed the end of in 2007 with injury. Regardless, the difference is certainly significant. Juice has also been rushing a lot more this year, with 64 attempts through 4 games, compared to 38 in '07. Daniel Dufrene is the starting tailback, but he hasn't been particularly impressive so far, and Juice has been handling the majority of the offense. Illinois' rushing offense has been clicking, and the passing offense is passable. However, quality of competition always comes into play when comparing absolute statistics. The Illini have faced a Missouri team that is all-offense (and has since given up 362 yards to Nevada - presumably after some early season improvem
ents), a pair of tomato cans, and one legit defense in Penn State. It appears as though Rashard Mendenhall was indeed the key to the Illinois offense last year.
How does it all apply directly to this game? Michigan is good at stopping the run, if the Wisconsin game is any indication, but bad if Utah and Notre Dame are your evidence. This blog is a firm believer in a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, and will assume that the Michigan DL has snapped out of its early season funk. However, The Illini won't line up and run straight at Michigan, opting instead to frequently line up in the shotgun and employ the option. Expect to see some of Michigan's more athletic linebackers, like Jonas Mouton, Artis Chambers, and Marell Evans, play a prominent role this week as Michigan tries to force Juice to pass. Through the air, Illinois won't be world-beaters, but Arrelious Benn will certai
nly make a spectacular play or two, especially with master-except-in-every-way-not-a-master of geometry Stevie Brown ready to take a horrible angle from time to time (to his credit, he played very well against Wisconsin), and a couple of suboptimal, but passable tacklers from the corner spots.
Defense
Going into their game against Penn State, Black Shoe Diaries noted that the Illini were a moribund 88th in rush defense, despite facing a couple of gimme games (one of which, against Louisiana-Lafayette, turned out to be not such a gimme), and a Missouri team that does most of its damage through the air. Were they able to turn things around against PSU? Not so much. Penn State picked up 241 yards and 2 TDs keeping the ball on the ground, the best performance against Illinois to date on the year. Brit Miller may be a decent player, but American Hero he ain't. Michigan is a team whose offensive line has been good in pass protection, but has had trouble blocking for the run. Facing a bad run defense is a pretty good cure for that (see: Michigan v. Notre Dame. Michigan gained 159 yards on the ground despite playing from a huge deficit the entire game). Expect Michigan to have some success on the ground against the Illini. In the passing game, Illinois is doing pretty well on the strength of cornerback Vontae Davis. The junior doesn't quite shut down his side of the field, but he isn't far off from it. However, it is also important to note that Chase Daniel and Darryl Clark, both operating spread offenses, threw for 323 and 181 yards against the Illini, respectively. If Michigan's execution problems can be hammered out a bit, there should be plays available through the air. Overall on defense, however, expect a few changes. The Illini coaches are not pleased with the players thus far in the season, so it's likely that an athletic linebacker like Martez Wilson may see the bench because he can't bring himself to play disciplined ball. No matter who starts, the Wolverines will either face guys who have been backups thus far this season, or players who the coaches flatly criticized for not being in position.
Special Teams
Arrelious Benn hasn't made any spectacular plays in the kicking game yet this year, but you have to think that's a ticking time bomb waiting to happen, rather than any regression by him. The kicking games have been what you'd expect from a BCS conference team, though Derrick Williams was able to take one to the house against the Illini Saturday night. Michigan fans are to the point where not fumbling gets marked up in the "win" column, so a surprisingly good return game may be in order.
Predictions
Michigan doesn't have any rusher crack 100 yards, but at least two gain more than 50.
Juice Williams will end the day with one good positive run, but will be sacked at least twice, and gain less than 42 net yards on the ground - thus far his season-low
When I originally previewed the Wisconsin Badgers in the summer, it appeared as though they would be one of the conference's top teams, especially if their pass defense was able to step forward despite the loss of NFL early-entrant Jack Ikegwuonu. When we spoke to Derek Zetlin this week, we learned that a lot has changed for the Badgers so far this season, but the expectations are still high.
First, let's take a look at Derek's list of things that weren't quite right with the preview:
Evridge actually won the starting job last year but a hamstring injury allowed Donovan to step in and win the job. He's also not as immobile as you make it seem.
I wouldn't consider Hill a "Fatty" anymore. He's lost weight and is now elusive more than ever.
WR Maurice Moore is seeing more snaps than the other backups after Jefferson and Gilreath.
O'Brien Schofield starts at DE opposite Shaughnessy.
McFadden starts over Hodge at MLB. Hodge is actually 3rd on the depth chart behind St. Jean because he sucks that much.
Goins and Brinkley have split time opposite Langford. Jay Valai starts at SS over Pleasant.
Nortman punts over Debauche and he's looked good so far.
In addition, some important things have changed since then:
Lance Smith was kicked off the team prior to the first game for violating the First Offender Program regarding a domestic violence charge from a year ago. He transfered to Memphis.
Beckum did miss the first 2 games because of a hamstring injury. Evridge threw for 308 yards i that game, granted it was against Marshall. But Graham has really looked great and in my mind will be an NFL TE.
Kirk Decremer is out for the season with a back injury.
Henry has been hurt all year, but might be back for the Michigan game.
So it appears that the Badgers have been missing a couple key pieces to the team.
As per usual, the Badgers look to move the ball behind a power run game on the newly-slimmed legs of PJ Hill. There will be lots of between-the-tackles action behind a strong O-line, and a play-action passing game relying mostly on the tight ends.
However, there is a bit of uncertainty due to injury for the Badgers. Hill has been slightly nicked up, and with Lance Smith off the team, backups John Clay and Zach Brown look to play a more prominent role. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Clay also has had some injury issues so far this fall. If Hill is less than 100%, Michigan may be able to stop Wisconsin by focusing on the run game, and forcing Allan Evridge to get it done through the air.
Even if Travis Beckum still isn't 100%, however, Garrett Graham is also a darn good option from the tight end position. If Beckum is 100%, Wisconsin should be able to do some really good things in the passing game by going to the TEs. The wideouts don't pose a huge threat on their own, but with a strong running game and two skilled tight ends to take the defense's focus off the perimeter, there may be a couple plays available to the Badgers.
Defensively, the Badgers have run hot and cold. Until the Fresno State game, they were on a run of starting games slowly, so if Michigan wins the toss, it might be a good idea to take the ball to start out. The secondary is the major point of weakness for Wisconsin, though they have performed somewhat admirably so far (albeit against Fresno State and a pair of tomato cans). With the potential return of Aaron Henry, they could see another step forward in that respect.
The Badgers are doing a good job against the run, but they've faced even-less-prolific offenses in that respect. Michigan is also running a different scheme than any of the Badgers' opponents so far, and they might be able to expose some weaknesses with the zone-read game. Like many traditional power-run teams, the Badgers have a problem with spread offenses, so the Wolverines may be able to exploit that.
Offensively, Michigan should be able to have some success. If they manage to execute like they did against Notre Dame, minus the egregious mistakes (i.e. several thousand fumbles, Nick Sheridan), they should be able to move the ball.
Predictions Michigan gets its highest scoring output of the year (currently 23 points against Utah) The defense helps out in that respect, coming away with a turnover that gives Michigan the ball somewhere inside the red zone (or scoring one themselves). Wisconsin wins, 34-24
After Saturday night's offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?
Let's take a look at the logic. Wisconsin is a good team Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno) Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo) Toledo is a good team.
Of course, early in the season, we don't know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?
Maybe the Badgers really aren't very good. Sure, it's not the most likely case, but there's a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren't very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.
Resumes? Resumes. Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.
Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying "o ya were da badgers" and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying "o ya were da badgers" and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn't happen in Wisconsin's only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.
Yahoo's Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno's defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn't expect to win?
With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let's take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we'll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.
Looking Back:
Utah The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah's will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it's strength against strength as Michigan's potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah's D may score once or twice itself. Prediction: Tossup
Utah's D didn't score, but Michigan's defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan's offense wouldn't be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.
Miami Miami's linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn't come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines' D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win. Prediction: Victory
Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.
Notre Dame 2008 is Michigan's turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame's effort from last year. Jon Tenuta's blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn't be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful '05 and '06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents... note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense? Prediction: Tossup
Michigan's inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn't show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.
Looking Forward Since these games haven't happened yet, my predictions haven't become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.
Wisconsin The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW's pass defense doesn't improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan's D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn't prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down. Prediction: Loss
Perhaps Michigan's second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin's defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.
I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.
When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it's looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.
I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.
Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers' offense wasn't particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.
After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.
Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Youngstown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to "defeat."
And...? If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.
For this second straight year, this game could look a little something like this:
Of course, last year, Michigan ended up pantsing The Worst Team Ever, and the Irish limped to a 3-9 season (that, in all honesty, should have been worse). So, what do we know about this years game?
When I previewed the Irish back in the summer, I was slightly skeptical that they would see tons of improvement. However, that didn't stop nearly every preseason magazine from anointing them the #1 most improved team, including Phil Steele. Against San Diego State, however, the Irish looked downright pitiful against a team that got completely smoked by a 1-AA squad the previous week, and needed the benefit of a couple pretty bad calls to put away the Aztecs.
The Irish offense was once again bad. I am still shocked that John Latina has yet to be fired, as the offensive line is completely terrible once again (please don't fire him, Notre Dame, we love him). Four starters return from last year's line, so inexperience can no longer be the excuse for getting dominated at the point of attack by one of the worst teams in 1-A.
Jimmy Clausen and the running backs seemed to carry over some of the same major issues they had last year, as outlined (with video!) in this post. However, just from a one-game sample size, I would name Clausen the most improved Irish player.
On defense, the Irish didn't dominate, but they did only allow 13 points to the Aztecs. Then again, one must take into consideration that San Diego state put up 379 yards on Cal Poly, and 345 on Notre Dame. This puts the Irish into "about the same quality as Cal Poly" territory.
Michigan hasn't exactly excelled themselves this early in the year, but the moribund performance from the Irish has to put some hope into the sails of Wolverine fans. Of course, the majority of SDSU's yardage came through the air, and Michigan's quarterbacks are far from stellar. That said, there is little question that they are more talented than the Aztecs' Ryan Lindley. Considering San Diego State was a blown call away from icing the Irish early in the fourth quarter, Michigan should have a little hope.
Predictions Michigan's defensive line should prevent the Irish from getting anything going consistently in this game. Clausen looks much better on the deep ball than he did in 2007 ,but I don't think he'll have a lot of time to throw it. On offense, Michigan should be able to incrementally increase their production, as the execution gets better with a little more game experience. Michigan wins 17-3.
Back in the summer when we previewed Miami, it appeared as though they would have a strong defense on the strength of three returning seniors, all of whom are all-conference candidates in the MAC. The offense didn't look quite as strong, with something of a quarterback controversy going on. After the loss to Vanderbilt, we weren't quite sure what to think, because nobody carries ESPNU. However, we relied on Dan Kukla of The Miami Student to fill us in on what we had missed.
Vanderbilt took Miami behind the woodshed, and the RedHawks weren't even competitve against the SEC bottom-dweller. The defense did not perform as expected, and the offense languished under the guidance of Daniel Radabough.
One thing that Kukla specifically pointed out was that Vanderbilt's "SEC Speed" was apparent against the RedHawks. Of course, I'm personally of the opinion that "SEC Speed," aside from not really existing, certainly doesn't aply to the Commodores. That said, Michigan's athletes, position-for-position, were all more highly recruited out of high school than were Vandy's, and Michigan has a decided speed advantage at every position as well. This doesn't bode well for Miami.
However, the speed means nothing if Michigan fails, as it did against Utah, to get athletes into space. The offensive line has to protect the quarterback(s) and make holes in the running game. Brandon Minor being healthy enough to get full prctice reps this week should make him the starter, and give a little stability to the UM offense.
On the other side of the ball, MIchigan's defense is facing a much limper test than it was last week against the Utes. Assuming there isn't as much of a first-half struggle to get into the game, this defense should be able to dominate a weaker opponent.
Predictions: Michigan's defense will take out revenge for their first-half struggles last week by dominating the RedHawks. Michigan's offense will be able to move the ball more effectively, with Steven Threet starting at QB. Martavious Odoms and Brandon Minor will both have at least one touchdown. There will be a big play for Michigan on special teams. The Wolverines win, 24-3.
As I noted in our summer preview of Utah, the Utes are probably going to be among the better teams that Michigan plays this year. Speaking with Daily Utah Chronicle writer Tony Pizza didn't dissuade me from that position.
Utah has experience on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Brian Johnson is finally healthy after suffering a multitude of injuries over the past two years. The offense should hum along, and the defense should be competent. The run defense appears to be a bit of a weakness for Utah, with a light group of starters on the line. That is probably how Michigan will primarily move the ball, especially with the quarterback situation still not settled.
Marquis Wilson, as predicted in the summer, is suspended for this game (and in fact, the entire year). One other thing that may give Michigan fans a bit of hope is the poor job Utah did defending the option against Navy last year. I predicted that they wouldn't be able to defend our option all that well before even seeing the stats. Navy ran for 316 yards on Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and managed to pass for 122 yards, 30 more than their season average.
The key for Michigan is to get a fast start. If they can get the first score, and a bit of momentum going, they should be able to take control of the game. Even a score on special teams on the opening kick could help make Utah think "Jesus these guys are good!" (Note: I usually think scoring on the opening kick is a disadvantage, because it makes the scoring team complacent. However, I think this Michigan team has something to prove in game one, and Utah may be fearing an obvious talent disparity). Utah has developed something of a reputation for road game chokes against BCS teams early in the season under Whittingham, and any sign that they are in for another round of the same may make the team fold.
Predictions: Michigan's offense won't light up the scoreboard, but they will be surprisingly competent. Michigan's defense won't live up to the 1997/2006-ish expectations that are being thrust upon it. Michigan walks away the victor (barely) in a fairly low-scoring battle, winning 23-20.
Now that we've seen what I think of each individual unit, and each team as a whole, it's time to make some predictions about how I think it will all come together.
Early in the year, the offense will have to rely on the defense to help them out a lot. Especially with Terrance Robinson missing at least a couple weeks at a key position in the Michigan offense (both in terms of use and depth), Terrance Taylor will have to lead the defensive line to dominance, and Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren will have to play like the big Ten's top corner duo.
Michigan is one of the hardest teams in the country to make predictions for, because nobody truly knows what to expect, not even rich Rodriguez's coaching staff. I do think that a lot of the pessimism in press conferences is a bit of misdirection, but anyone expecting the Wolverines to run the table might need to go for a reality check.
Predictions! Utah The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah's will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it's strength against strength as Michigan's potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah's D may score once or twice itself. Prediction: Tossup
Miami Miami's linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn't come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines' D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win. Prediction: Victory
Notre Dame 2008 is Michigan's turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame's effort from last year. Jon Tenuta's blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn't be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful '05 and '06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents... note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense? Prediction: Tossup
Wisconsin The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW's pass defense doesn't improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan's D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn't prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down. Prediction: Loss
Illinois I'm not as high on the Illini as many people are after their breakout 2007 season. They lost their two best players, and although Juice Williams improved dramatically, he still completed only 57.3% of his passes, and with the threat of Rashard Mendenhall gone, it will be tougher for him to both run and pass. Arrelius Benn, however, will be a big help catching passes and making things happen. On defense, the Illini are doing a bit of rebuilding yet again, with J Leman gone. However, the talent to replace him is there. Prediction: Tossup
Toledo The Rockets had a fairly prolific offense last year, and look to continue that trend with a trio of quarterbacks who have game experience. The rushing attack will drop off quite a bit, however. On defense, the Rockets might not have the talent to stop the Michigan offense, especially if they can get a bit of momentum going in the middle of the year. Prediction: Victory
Penn State Though Michigan has owned Penn State in recent years, don't expect that trend to continue. Penn State is equally transitional, but the Nitanny Lions retun much of a strong line, and their personnel ran the spread a few years ago with Michael Robinson at the helm. Whil Penn State lacks a true offensive leader like Robinson, they shouldn't drop off too much. On defense, the Lions are a little weaker than recent years, with a relatively green linebacking corps and a group of tackles decimated by offseason attrition. However, Michigan's inexperience on offense will likely outweigh Penn State's on defense. Prediction: Loss
Michigan State Like Illinois, I'm not buying into much of the national hype on the Spartans. Returning a starting QB isn't as positive if he's more liability than asset. Javon Ringer is the only truly great player on this offense (though his "thunder" counterpart, Jehuu Caulcrick, is gone), and Hoyer's top two targets now ply their trade in the NFL. On defense, MSU lost their SackMaster, several pieces from an already suspect secondary, and linebacker Kaleb Thornhill. However, there is reason to be excited about another linebacker, the youngster Greg Jones. Prediction: Tossup
Purdue The Purdue game might be one of the most important of the year for Michigan. I'm not joking. If they roll into this game at 4-4 (as I'm predicting), a win would put Michigan in good position to get to a bowl game for the 35th straight year. A loss, however, and they have to hope that they get in at 6-6. The Purdue offense has consistently sputtered against decent opponents, and Michigan's defense this year is expected to be one of the best in the nation, especially as the youth gets worked out over the course of the year. On defense, Purdue looks fairly dire, with several players moving around to try to replace impact guys from last year. Michigan's offense won't be prolific, but should be able to take advantage of a weak defensive unit. Prediction: Victory
Minnesota Unless Tim Brewster ignites a Zook-ian turnaround in his Gopher squad, they should be at or near the bottom of the Big Ten standings by the time this game rolls around. I would have liked to see a scrimmage between Minnesota's defense and Notre Dame's offense last year to see which was more incompetent. The Gophers can't be much worse this year, but they probably won't be heaps better, either. Minnesota's offense was decent last year, but it would still take a big leap to be successful against top-tier defenses, one of which Michigan looks to have. Prediction: Victory
Northwestern Northwestern blogger Lake the Posts is trying to generate buzz around this edition of the Wildcats, but I don't see them making a leap towards the top of the conference. They will be a middle-of-the-pack team (and Northwestern fans should remember that not too long ago, they would have been begging for that). I see Michigan as a middling conference team as well, but a team that looks similar to Northwestern with vastly more talent, except at the QB position. Prediction: Victory
Ohio State The most complete team in the country, on their own home field. Prediction: Pain
All in all, it looks to be a 7-5 regular season for Michigan. Of course, they could come out against Utah looking either much stronger or much weaker than expected, which would throw all these predictions off. However, a rebuilding year in 2008 should be expected, with 2009 being a return to the top of the conference standings, before the Wolverines start making national noise around 2010.
Of course, now that everything is worked out for the 2008 season, what can we look forward to in recruiting for 2009 and 2010?
This week, we welcomed Tony Pizza, the Sports Editor of the Daily Utah Chronicle, to give us some inside info on the Utes.
UPDATE: For some reason that is not immediately obvious, the flash player for this isn't working (and only for this one). For the time being, you can download the podcast here (right click>save target as). I'll try to figure out what the problem is. If that isn't working (my computer decided it no longer could run any sort of sound hardware), I'll remaster it at work tomorrow and re-post it.
UPDATE PART DUEX: It's been remastered and double checked. It really should work for everyone now. I hope.
Kicking Game After The Horror and the several other games in which Jason Gingell was horrible, he was replaced by5th-year senior KC Lopata, who just so happened to be pretty good. He will return as the kicker. Punting will be the domain of redshirt junior Zoltan Mesko, with Bryan Wright handling kickoffs. Wright is also moving from placekicker to punter, where he will back up Mesko.
Statistics
Michigan Kicking 2007
Name
FGM
Att
%
Long
XPM
Att
%
KC Lopata
11
12
91.67
42
28
29
96.55
Jason Gingell
3
9
33.33
42
14
14
100.00
Michigan Punting 2007
Name
Punts
Yds
Avg
Zoltan Mesko
70
2876
41.09
Analysis KC was a good replacement for Gingell last year, and should maintain his grip on the job in 2008. He was consistent, even if he doesn’t have great leg strength. Zoltan is poised to be one of the best punters in the conference, and Bryan Wright has a big leg for kicking touchbacks, but clearly not accurate enough to kick field goals. The move to a rugby punt may scare some Michigan fans, but it hasn't come back to bite West Virginia in recent years.
Return Game On punt returns, Donovan Warren is expected to be the starter. If his speed isn't what the team needs at the position, I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to the steady hands of Greg Mathews. On kickoff returns, Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison are expected to start. Both have good top-end speed.
Statistics:
Michigan Punt Returns 2007
Name
Ret
Yds
Avg
TD
Greg Mathews
28
224
8.00
0
Donovan Warren
5
23
4.40
0
Johnny Sears
2
14
7.00
0
Michigan Kick Returns 2007
Name
Ret
Yds
Avg
TD
Carlos Brown
16
306
19.13
0
Brandon Minor
13
257
19.77
0
Johnny Sears
6
133
22.17
0
Brandon Harrison
4
74
18.50
0
Mike Massey
2
28
14.00
0
Junior Hemingway
2
20
10.00
0
Obi Ezeh
1
13
13.00
0
Jonas Mouton
1
20
20.00
0
Analysis There are plenty of options, especially with the freshmen recreuited to the speed-friendly offense of Rich Rodriguez. Don't be surprised to see a more exciting return game than Michigan had in 2007, though perhaps not as electrifying as Steve Breaston was in the role.
Overall Defensive Analysis This should be the strength of the team, with several returning starters, especially along the D-line. Having to replace big parts of the linebacking corps and secondary may be troublesome, but the defensive line is expected to be somewhat dominant. As long as they keep the pressure on, the other units might not have to do too much.
Keys to Defensive Success The Mike Barwis factor may get more press than it deserves, but the defensive line was consistently winded during games last year, and if they are all in shape to go for an entire game, they should bring a lot of success to the offense. With the more aggressive defensive schemes of Scott Shafer, the corners will have to be able to get a good jam on receivers, and the new safeties will have to prevent giving up big plays. Another thing that might be helpful is to score some points on their own, since the offense may struggle to do so.
Overall Offensive Analysis The youth and inexperience at quarterback and offensive line (and to a certain extent, receiver) could mean bad things for the Michigan offense this year. The running backs will provide a certain degree of consistency. The slots are very young, but the system is tailored to their skill sets, and they should have some success.
Keys to Offensive Success Quarterback play is essential in this system, and it will be especially crucial in 2008 with youth at the position. The quarterbacks will have to distribute the ball to the playmakers (enough of which there are to run a successful offense) and avoid making mistakes and committing turnovers. The offense has to keep the ball, and allow the defense to get a bit of rest. Since the defense is expected to be fairly dominant, the offense's main job is to not screw up.
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be not such a gimme), and a Missouri team that does most of its damage through the air. Were they able to turn things around against PSU? Not so much. Penn State picked up 241 yards and 2 TDs keeping the ball on the ground, the best performance against Illinois to date on the year. Brit Miller may be a decent player, but American Hero he ain't. Michigan is a team whose offensive line has been good in pass protection, but has had trouble blocking for the run. Facing a bad run defense is a pretty good cure for that (see: Michigan v. Notre Dame. Michigan gained 159 yards on the ground despite playing from a huge deficit the entire game). Expect Michigan to have some success on the ground against the Illini. In the passing game, Illinois is doing pretty well on the strength of cornerback Vontae Davis. The junior doesn't quite shut down his side of the field, but he isn't far off from it. However, it is also important to note that Chase Daniel and Darryl Clark, both operating spread offenses, threw for 323 and 181 yards against the Illini, respectively. If Michigan's execution problems can be hammered out a bit, there should be plays available through the air. Overall on defense, however, expect a few changes. The Illini 
