In its 9 years of existence, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge has been fairly one-sided: The ACC has won every single time. 2008 brings yet another chance for the Big Ten to break through in the Challenge. Through two days of competition, the conference are tied at 3 wins apiece (thanks, Illini and Hawkeyes, for throwing your games away). With a couple daunting games left (UNC/MSU, Indiana/Wake Forest), the teams who represented the bottom of the conference last year will have to sweep the ACC in order for the Big Ten to lock up its first challenge.
Sagarin Ratings in remaining games
#129 Indiana visits #22 Wake Forest, and they'll be 16.39 point underdogs in Raleigh-Durham.
#83 Penn State takes on #58 Georgia Tech on the road, in a game in which the Jackets will be favored by 5.13 points.
#23 Michigan State hosts #1 North Carolina at Ford Field. They will be 10.21-point dogs in the neutral-site game. However, The 'Heels may be without their star, Tyler Hansbrough (who, of course, they've been without for much of this year).
#46 Florida State goes to Chicago to face #59 Northwestern, and the Big Ten actually has a favorite in this one! The Cats are 7.06-point favorites.
...And that brings us to the game that Michigan fans care most about: the Wolverines head to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins at 7:30 tonight on ESPNU.
Maryland sports a #34 Sagarin Rating, and Michigan is #40. On a neutral floor, Beilein's bunch would be a 2.36-point underdog. In a home game, the Terps are favored by 6.36. They enter this contest on a two-game slide against Gonzaga and Georgetown. Maryland's best player is the outstandingly-monikered Grievis Vasquez, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. His effective field goal percentage is 45.88%, which is supbar. Georgetown managed to shut Vasquez down, holding him to 1-7 shooting (0-4 3pt).
Michigan State
Maryland faced Michigan State (on a neutral floor) in the Old Spice Classic, and beat the Spartans handily, by a score of 80-62.
Michigan State, the only team Maryland has played with a Sagarin rating anywhere remotely close to Michigan's, Vasquez still only shot 42.86 eFG%, meaning that he is certainly containable (of course, his 17 points were aided by the Spartans sending him to the free throw line 6 times).
Michigan State lost the game against Maryland by giving up too many good looks from the outside. The Terrapins shot 9-19 from behind the arc in the Old Spice Classic. For the year, Michigan's opponents are shooting 27.45% from three, including bad performance by UCLA and Duke, and an inexplicable 7-9 from Savannah State. For its part, Maryland's performance against State was a pretty significant outlier in the young season.
The Terrapins also managed to shut down Raymar Morgan, who to this point in 2008 has been MSU's go-to player. Michigan doesn't rely on a post presence like Morgan, instead shooting the ball from outside a lot, and getting slashes to the basket from Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims (who also posts up a bit).
Although Maryland shut down MSU's post presence, they don't have a lot of size, and it will be interesting to see whether DeShawn Sims can have a bit more success down low (along with Zack Gibson) - or at least use the postup to open up shooters outside.
The Wolverines face a tough test, especially since Maryland shut down a team expected to be far better than them in the Spartans. However, the Terrapins haven't been without their troubles, and Michigan is a different type of team than Michigan State, regardless of difference in talent level.
There may be another ITP coming from this game. Stay tuned later in the week in case there is.
The Situation It's Michigan State's first drive of the game. The drive started on their own 17, and despite a big sack, they were able to convert on a long third down attempt, completing a pass to Mark Dell. After a pair of Javon Ringer runs, they face 3rd and 5 from their own 39 yard line. A stop here, and Michigan sets the tone against Little Brother. If the Spartans convert, however, they might be able to ride the momentum to their first victory against the Wolverines since 2001.
The Personnel and Formation
Michigan State comes out in a 4-wide shotgun. White Blair is in the left slot next to Mark Dell, and a tight end (Charlie Gantt) is lined up in the right slot. Javon Ringer is to Hoyer's right. Michigan counters this formation with a 4-3. Jonas Mouton is head-up with White, and Johnny Thompson is over the tight end. Stevie Brown and Brandon Harrison are the safeties.
The Play
Michigan appears to be running a cover-2 man scheme on this play. Jonas Mouton is the important party, as he is White's man. At the snap, Dell doesn't even go out on a route, and instead occupies Trent with a block of sorts. On the right, the other wideout gets an outside release and runs his defender (Warren) off. The slots are making all the magic on this play. Gantt runs a hook towards the middle of the field, and White runs a slant. This is clearly a one-read play for Hoyer, as he never looks anywhere other than directly at White. White makes the catch, breaks a tackle from Stevie Brown, and races to the endzone.
Why it Worked
Jonas Mouton gets completely burned by his man on this play. He gives up the middle of the field, and is left chasing after White. Compounding the issue, Stevie Brown pretty much whiffs on his tackle, allowing White to get behind the last line of defense. Mouton is culpable for the reception, and Brown is at fault for allowing a first down to turn into a touchdown.
Going into the Michigan State game, I was not confident Michigan would win, but certainly that they could win. As it turns out, the defense laid a complete egg, and it's back to the drawing board again. A few random observations from the weekend that was:
The stadium atmosphere, though it was better than some games, left a whole lot to be desired. Most disturbingly, a rival's fans got a stadium-wide cheer going in the waning moments of a victory in our stadium.
The offense still can't put together four full quarters, but with the defense Michigan has, there really isn't much of an excuse to lose a game in which we score 21 points.
The recruiting weekend didn't go exactly as planned, but it sounds as though most of the recruits in attendance really liked Michigan - with the notable exception of DeWayne Peace. Is a decommitment looming?
Maybe I've just never considered them because I'm friends with a bunch of MSU fans, and those that I typically run across are cordial enough, but MSU fans are really a special brand of pathetic.
And looking forward to Purdue:
The Boilermakers are probably the coldest team in the conference at this point, with Wisconsin and Indiana finally cracking through this past weekend. The next closest "competitor?" Probably Michigan. Sadly, this weekend's game is likely a battle to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference, along with Indiana.
QB Curtis Painter is expected to miss the game this weekend. Top backup Joey Elliott is out for the remainder of the season. That means OLSM product Justin Siller will likely start for the Boilers.
If you ask me, Purdue is the closest thing offensively Michigan will play to Toledo (except maybe Minnesota). This might bode ill for the Michigan defense, since it's a personnel upgrade at nearly every position (except maybe replacing a 5th-year senior QB for a redshirt freshman).
I don't forsee having a podcast this week.
Michigan really needs this game. If they can get a bit of momentum going, they could probably pull off a game or two against Minnesota and Northwestern, as well.
Paul: me: why did you go to state? her: i didn't want to write an essay Tim: eye lasers Paul: so it begins Paul: yakety Tim: sparty no Tim: sparty no x2 Paul: brian hoyer always comes through. now we'll go 3 and out and miss the fg Tim: I think he was down Tim (post Minor receiving TD): really shitty call, but whatev Paul: i take what i can get Paul: msu fans are moving up the shitlist Tim: yeah. they aren't even knowledgable, which is one of the few possible redeeming qualities. im not used to cocky AND stupid. Tim: haha one of them just threw a punch and got kicked the fuck out Paul: connor got into a scuffle... with an m fan. Paul: mo t: hurt or dog house? Tim: i think they're trying to establish something of a rotation Tim: john thompson isn't sucking. what alternate reality have we been temporarily transported to? Paul: 2 minute offense? what? Tim: in the rare game that we dont score on our first drive, we are tied at half. might there be a little more offense in the tank? Paul: so second half like wisco or like ill/psu? Tim: give me somewhere in between and i might be satisfied Paul: threet can run this offense Tim: obvs Paul: brandon graham hates qbs Tim: Worst kicker in the state of michigan Paul: evil msu fg hating god? Tim: i wouldn't say evil if it's msu hating Paul: evil michigan 3rd down hating god Paul: sparty nothe offense is not inspiring... big play is needed... M needs field position Tim (re: 3trd quarter music): does paralyzer win this vote if we aren't playing state? i think not Tim: i was getting ready to tell you our 3rd down d leaves something to be desired. bg55 bailed it out Paul: looks like he's playing for top end draft $$ Paul: impending doom... Tim: yeah... Paul: and... doom Tim: so much fucking doom Paul: DOOM! Paul: btw... sparty bob infiltrated the pressbox Tim: remember the days when only sheridan threw crippling interceptions? Paul: ohhh last week... i remember thee well.
Rationally I knew it was likely that Michigan would lose. This isn't a good team. The offensive line is inexperienced and constituted mainly of middling recruits. The wide receivers included James Rogers and Zion Babb. A ton of the big contributors are injured or nicked up.
There's a brand new offense that's different, scary and wildly inconsistent. The defense is having growing pains learning a new scheme. Sometimes they look amazing, and other times they look confused.
There's no reason to expect big things. Hume disproved the principle of the uniformity of nature. Just because Michigan has been consistently good does not guarantee that Michigan will be good in the future.
I know Rich Rodriguez will mold this team into a something amazing. He is a winner everywhere he goes. Michigan has a great base and program to support the team. All evidence points to greener fields ahead. The 2009 class (as of now) looks to be elite. The 2010 class will likely be better. Something good is around the corner.
Sparty tried to give Michigan the game. They did not play well. They left a ton of points on the field. Michigan got a very dubious call in their favor (how the Hell was Minor in bounds?). Michigan is just not good enough to capitalize. Rationally I know this season shouldn't be evaluated in wins and losses. Michigan fans need to take their medecine and look forward to the future.
When I previewed Michigan State in the summer, I really wasn't that enamored with the Spartans. Watching them over the course of the year, they have had moderate success, which may seem to run counter to what I thought about the team. However, in their biggest games, Michigan State has failed to impress anyone. Essentially, they are who we thought they were.
Talking with State News writer Cash Kruth, my opinion of the Spartans still remains pretty much the same: they are a mediocre team, not a good one. Their strength of schedule speaks to this, and against real competition, they have struggled for the most part. Of course, a mediocre team should be able to beat a bad one, namely the Michigan Wolverines.
Offense The Spartan offense is centered around one player: Javon Ringer. Ringer leads the nation in rushing yardage, with 1179 yards so far this year (Donald Brown of Connecticut has 1174 yards in one fewer game), and he runs for about 150 yards per Spartan contest. The offense is heavily reliant on Ringer, and in his two worst contests, the Spartans have lost for the only two times this season. It is important to note of Ringer, however, that he has 60 more carries than the next-closest player in Division 1-A. He has the lowest yards-per-carry average (4.48) of any player in the top 40 in rushing yardage, and most have him beat by a significant margin.
So why do the Spartans run Ringer so often, if they're not reaping great benefits every time? Looking at Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, the wideouts, you'd think that MSU would pass it more. However, when you approach the situation under center, you realize that Brian Hoyer is often as much a liability for Michigan State as he is an asset. Despite having fairly good weapons, including Javon Ringer to take off some of the pressure, Brian Hoyer is 72nd in the country in passing efficiency. This is all despite rarely getting sacked.
So Michigan has a gameplan for beating Michigan State: stop Javon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to beat you. He hasn't been able to single-handedly take down a team yet (his best opportunity, at Cal, saw him complete less than 42% of his passes) and is unlikely to suddenly start doing so. Michigan has already beaten a team of this mold, and Wisconsin had a significantly better offensive line, a wider variety of options at running back, and a more robust over-the-middle passing game, which thus far has been Michigan's biggest problem in coverage.
One other thing to note about the Spartan offense is the turnover rate. As much as Michigan has coughed the ball up this year, Michigan State has had troubles of their own, especially when Hoyer is forced to throw the ball (6-4 TD-int ratio). They had 3 fumbles lost against Ohio State, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.
Defense MSU's defense has been at best okay, though strength of schedule again comes into play. Indiana scored their most points of the season against D-1A competition against MSU (29), Cal their third most (38, though the other two higher scores were against Washington State and Colorado State), but they gave up season-lows in point total to Notre Dame (7) and Florida Atlantic (0). The Atlantic game may have been something of an outlier, as their pass-happy attack was unlikely to find success in a monsoon regardless of who they were playing, but results speak for themselves.
The strength of Michigan's offense is the pass game, like the strength of MSU's defense is pass effeiciency. However, despite Michigan's obvious offensive struggles this year, the Wolverine pass game may be one of the best the Spartans have faced so far. If nothing else, there is the biggest array of receiving talent this side of OSU, and if Steven Threet is healthy, the passer shouldn't be too shabby. Of course, this all goes to hell if Nick Sheridan has to play any significant time. MSU's secondary is strongest at the safeties (if you consider any position where Kendell Davis Clark is a starter a "strength" - though I admit I haven't extensively seen him play at safety), so Michigan should have some ability to attack the perimeter on the sideline passes and wheel routes that have thus far been their most successful plays already.
In the run game, Michigan State has no been so successful on the defensive side of the ball. Cal and Ohio State went for over 200 on them, even Eastern Michigan went for 127, Shonn Greene of Iowa tore them up for 157, and only Notre Dame had a really bad day against them, which was partially due to the Spartans getting an early lead, followed immediately by Jimmy Clausen taking 4 bad sacks. The Irish put up only 16 yards rushing, though that came on merely 22 attempts (including sacks). Michigan might be the most anemic rushing attack that MSU has faced so far this season, but the Spartans have shown that, given the chance, a run game can succeed against them.
Michigan's gameplan will likely be to get the ball to the outside, and get playmakers in space. However, when the run game came to life a bit in the first quarter against Penn State, we saw that Brandon Minor, for all his fumbling troubles, may give Michigan an oportunity to actually move the ball without throwing. A healthy mix of plays, and passing to set up the run a bit, may speak to Michigan's advantage. As I said earlier this week, Michigan's offense this year might not be as good as West Virginia's ever was under Rich Rodriguez, but the man certainly knows how to gash a Dantonio defense either way. He might be able to scheme to keep that trend going.
Predictions The Michigan offense will reach a new season high in terms of total yardage. Martavious Odoms will get his first touchdown as a Wolverine. The Michigan defense or special teams will score on their own, or at least get the ball on Michigan State's side of the 50 for the offense. There will be at least 2 "Sparty, No" moments. Michigan wins, 28-20.
In this blogcast we talked with Cash Kruth, football beat writer for the State News. We discussed the state of State football and commiserated about recent loses as well as got a preview of the upcoming flag football game between the the State News and the Michigan Daily. Enjoy:
The first question comes from RJ, who you may remember from the last edition of Mailbag:
The University has been fairly consistent about being against night games. With Rich Rod as coach might that change?
The University has indeed had a pretty consistent aversion to playing games under the lights. Lloyd Carr's Wolverines never played a home game with a start later than 4:30, whereas Rich Rodriguez's Mountaineers played night games regularly. This may give the impression that it was Carr preventing the team from taking the field at 7 or 8 PM. However, I think it was the athletic administration, rather than the football staff, that was preventing this.
AD Bill Martin has stated several reasons for wanting to not play a night game, and the retirement of Lloyd Carr didn't really change any of them. Some of the reasons include:
Alumni pressure. A lot of the older alums really want to be able to get in bed by 8, rather than sitting down in the Big House. Luxury boxes and indoor club seating might make night games a little more appealing to elderly fans.
Curbing all-day drinking. If people wake up at 7 to tailgate for a noon football game, they get very drunk. If they wake up at 7 to tailgate for a football game that is more than 12 hours away, they get very very drunk. This is a public safety issue, and the administration doesn't really want to get involved with that.
Wanting to allow Michigan fans to drive home while it is still light out. Afternoon starts don't really avoid this, and a lot of people live far enough away that they may end up driving in the dark anyway (especially with post-game traffic).
No permanent lighting in Michigan Stadium. The portable lighting that has to be brought in for later games (which is paid for by the networks, not the school, in case you were interested) is both a hassle and a poor solution that doesn't adequately light to playing field. With the stadium renovations, there will be footings for lights, but according to Dave Ablauf, still no permanent fixtures. However, the footings will allow for better lighting in the future.
In the first year, there is almost no chance of a night game, especially with the stadium renovations ongoing. However, with an enthusiastic young coach, and ever-increasing money to be made from TV, night games are something that it may be possible to see down the road.
The next question comes from an anonymous commenter who asks:
tim, i apppreciate the work you put into this blog. it is very well done. do you think that msu will keep both of their backs. i have to believe that one of them will bail.
Well, a lot of the players that are currently committed to the Spartans are not that highly regarded. I doubt State would lose Maxwell, Spencer, or Treadwell to a less prestigious program. That leaves the following three prospects: Edwin Baker RB 5*, 5-11, 200, 4.40 Baker's recruitment had been pretty quiet until he committed to State. Michigan has offered him, though the offer didn't come until he was already a Spartan. It does not seem like he is probably going to stick with State, though I would be VERY surprised if he is the #2 running back in the country come February (I'll even be mildly surprised if he ends up with all 5 of those stars).
Chris Norman LB 4* 6-2, 200, 4.60 Norman had seemed pretty open, and perhaps even leaning towards Michigan. Then State offered, and he committed abruptly. If you had asked this question a while back, I would have said he was a strong candidate for decommitment. However, with each day that passes by, it seems less and less likely that the Spartans lose his pledge.
Larry Caper RB 4* 5-11, 210, 4.41 Caper seems like the most likely of Michigan State's verbals to leave the recruiting class. He committed to the Spartans before Baker (a more highly-ranked player) did, and though he says all the right things about not being scared off, the dread spectre of sitting on the bench has to be at least somewhat disheartening. However, State did do a god job splitting time between many guys last year (Jevon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick each had more than 220 carries), though they probably should have run it more, i.e. when it could have won them the Champs Sports Bowl. Caper's favorites prior to his commitment had been Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, and with Charlie Weis's cupboard currently bare, he might pursue Caper pretty heavily.
As always, thanks for the questions guys. Keep sending them in and I'll keep answering to the best of my ability.
Etc.: Texas quarterback GJ Kinne has announced that he will transfer. No word yet on whether this will affect the decision of Sherrod Harris, another 'Horns backup who was considering a transfer (with Michigan as a potential destination).
| »
