With Michigan's basketball team attaining a new standard of relevance, it's easy to see how Wolverines fans are already prognosticating a run to the NCAA tournament. Wins over UCLA and Duke are certainly a stepping stone towards achieving that goal, but there is still work to be done. Let's see what Michigan has to do to make it into the Big Dance. Sagarin Ratings are little more than a rough draft at this point, but they give us some idea of the relative strengths of the teams.

Completed Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Result	Record
11-11-08	Michigan Tech	(DII)	77-55	1-0
11-12-08	Northeastern	151	76-56	2-0
11-20-08	(n) UCLA	20	55-52	3-0
11-21-08	(n) Duke	4	56-71	3-1
11-25-08	Norfolk State	321	83-49	4-1
11-29-08	Savannah State	230	66-64	5-1
12-3-08	@Maryland	39	70-75	5-2
12-6-08	Duke	4	81-73	6-2

The wins over UCLA and Duke were certainly not expected, and one could easily maintain that Michigan has done better through the first part of its schedule than could possibly have been expected. Salvaging the win over Savannah State was key. Had Michigan been able to top Maryland on the road (and, in all honesty, they should have), we'd be looking at a pretty highly-ranked team right now.

Remaining Non-conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-13-08	Eastern Michigan	261	W
12-20-08	Oakland	124	W
12-22-08	Florida Gulf Coast	317	W
12-29-08	NC Central	345	W
2-7-08	@ UConn	7	L

The remaining four games before the start of the conference schedule are all must-wins. Even with some good victories under their belt, the Wolverines would be devastated by a loss to any of these teams. The mid-year tilt with UConn looks like a loss this early in the year, but who knows where the teams will be come February?

Conference Schedule
Date	Opponent	Sagarin	Projection
12-31-08	Wisconsin	31	W
1-4-09	Illinois	25	T
1-7-09	@ Indiana	146	W
1-11-09	Iowa	65	W
1-14-09	@ Illinois	25	L
1-17-09	Ohio State	5	L
1-20-09	@ Penn State	80	W
1-24-09	Northwestern	36	W
1-28-09	@ Ohio State	5	L
1-31-09	@ Purdue	33	L
2-5-09	Penn State	80	W
2-10-09	Michigan State	37	T
2-15-09	@ Northwestern	36	T
2-19-09	Minnesota	57	W
2-22-09	@ Iowa	65	T
2-26-09	Purdue	33	T
3-1-09	@ Wisconsin	31	L
3-7-09	@ Minnesota	57	T

Going into the conference schedule, it loks like Michigan will have a 10-2 record (and will and with a 10-3 non-conference record overall). The conference predictions are little more than guesses at this point, because it's hard to tell this early in the season exactly how good all these teams are. Regardless, I project Michigan to be 17-8 (7-5) with 6 in-conference toss-ups. They would likely need to win at least two of those toss-ups, but preferably three to bring them to 20-11 (10-8). This would nearly assure them a bid to the NCAA tournament, especially if combined with a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney. 19-12 (9-9) would likely necessitate a couple wins in the Big Ten Tournament to warrant an NCAA bid.

Of course, Michigan will overachieve at times, and likely underachieve at others. The key is to minimize bad losses, and win most of the games that they should. Combined with the possibility for an upset or two, they should be able to make the tournament.

Another key will be closing the season strong. Unlike college football, finishing the regular season strong is an established criterion for selection to the NCAA tournament. With a likely loss and three tossups in the final four regular-season games, Michigan will have to find a way to win a couple of those tossups to warrant strong consideration.

Labels: basketball, dancing, still not football

A few quick thoughts on last night's game:

• Man, Anthony Wright just sucks. I've thought that all along, but I decided to try to trust those who know a little more basketball than I do. Unless Wright goes on a ridiculous tear sometime soon, I shall not be dissuaded.
• Early in the second half, I thought Maryland was making a run, and as long as Michigan kept it close during said run, the Wolverines would be able to pull away at the end. I was wrong. This team isn't deep enough right now to win games like that against quality competition.
• Speaking of depth, with Laval Lucas-Perry, Michigan probably win this game. That's definitely something to look forward to in a couple weeks. Michigan really needed another person who could test the defense of the Terps.
• Manny Harris tends to force things too often, leading to turnovers. If something isn't there, he needs to calm down a bit and let the play develop.
• The full-court press didn't cause any turnovers (that I can remember off the top of my head, at least), but man, did it give us hell. There were a lot of times I was surprised we managed to break half-court.
• If we had gotten a few more rebounds, the Wolverines could have won this game. Zack Gibson let so many go straight through his hands.
• I'm certainly watching the game through maize-colored lenses here, but it certainly seemed like the officiating was bad in general and... slanted... in particular. A big part of that may be the home-court advantage in college basketball, but it seemed like we got very few calls, and Maryland got a lot of really close thigns called their way.

Labels: basketball, postview, still not football

In its 9 years of existence, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge has been fairly one-sided: The ACC has won every single time. 2008 brings yet another chance for the Big Ten to break through in the Challenge. Through two days of competition, the conference are tied at 3 wins apiece (thanks, Illini and Hawkeyes, for throwing your games away). With a couple daunting games left (UNC/MSU, Indiana/Wake Forest), the teams who represented the bottom of the conference last year will have to sweep the ACC in order for the Big Ten to lock up its first challenge.

Sagarin Ratings in remaining games

• #129 Indiana visits #22 Wake Forest, and they'll be 16.39 point underdogs in Raleigh-Durham.
• #83 Penn State takes on #58 Georgia Tech on the road, in a game in which the Jackets will be favored by 5.13 points.
• #23 Michigan State hosts #1 North Carolina at Ford Field. They will be 10.21-point dogs in the neutral-site game. However, The 'Heels may be without their star, Tyler Hansbrough (who, of course, they've been without for much of this year).
• #46 Florida State goes to Chicago to face #59 Northwestern, and the Big Ten actually has a favorite in this one! The Cats are 7.06-point favorites.

...And that brings us to the game that Michigan fans care most about: the Wolverines head to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins at 7:30 tonight on ESPNU.

Maryland sports a #34 Sagarin Rating, and Michigan is #40. On a neutral floor, Beilein's bunch would be a 2.36-point underdog. In a home game, the Terps are favored by 6.36. They enter this contest on a two-game slide against Gonzaga and Georgetown. Maryland's best player is the outstandingly-monikered Grievis Vasquez, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. His effective field goal percentage is 45.88%, which is supbar. Georgetown managed to shut Vasquez down, holding him to 1-7 shooting (0-4 3pt).

Michigan State

• Maryland faced Michigan State (on a neutral floor) in the Old Spice Classic, and beat the Spartans handily, by a score of 80-62.
• Michigan State, the only team Maryland has played with a Sagarin rating anywhere remotely close to Michigan's, Vasquez still only shot 42.86 eFG%, meaning that he is certainly containable (of course, his 17 points were aided by the Spartans sending him to the free throw line 6 times).
• Michigan State lost the game against Maryland by giving up too many good looks from the outside. The Terrapins shot 9-19 from behind the arc in the Old Spice Classic. For the year, Michigan's opponents are shooting 27.45% from three, including bad performance by UCLA and Duke, and an inexplicable 7-9 from Savannah State. For its part, Maryland's performance against State was a pretty significant outlier in the young season.
  
• The Terrapins also managed to shut down Raymar Morgan, who to this point in 2008 has been MSU's go-to player. Michigan doesn't rely on a post presence like Morgan, instead shooting the ball from outside a lot, and getting slashes to the basket from Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims (who also posts up a bit).
• Although Maryland shut down MSU's post presence, they don't have a lot of size, and it will be interesting to see whether DeShawn Sims can have a bit more success down low (along with Zack Gibson) - or at least use the postup to open up shooters outside.
  

The Wolverines face a tough test, especially since Maryland shut down a team expected to be far better than them in the Spartans. However, the Terrapins haven't been without their troubles, and Michigan is a different type of team than Michigan State, regardless of difference in talent level.

Go Blue, beat the Terrapins!

Labels: basketball, maryland, michigan state hate, still not football

I did not attend either of Michigan's games in their regional of the 2Ksports Classic benefitting Coaches v. Cancer (not getting into town until tomorrow: drat!), but I did manage to catch most of both games on ESPNU by heading out to local drinking establishments.

Pre-game tonight (IM conversation):
Paul: no one wanted to go to the bball game with me... i'm so surprised
Tim: haha. are you still going to go?
Paul: no
Tim: typical michigan basketball fan. i would go if i were there.
Paul: who wants to go to the bball game alone. that would be sad
Tim: THE BASKETBALL TEAM DOESNT SEEM TO MIND IT
Tim: der uberzing.

...And on that note:

• Am I supposed to be able to tell Zach Novak and Stu Douglass apart? I hope not.
• I love how "Academic All-Big Ten" is a synonym for "former walk-on." However, it appears that, in basketball, "former walk-on" manages to not be a synonym for "white."
• ESPNU's coverage is... lacking. The worst part is the ridiculous length of commercial breaks.
• Manny Harris is much better than last year (with necessary caveats about level of competition), but he still tries to make things happen more than he needs to, resulting in turnovers or bad shots.
• What's with Jevohn Shepherd changing numbers? That's going to take some getting used to.
• Nobody on Michigan can rebound to save their lives.
• When are the kids on the fringes of the Maize Rage going to realize they look stupider being the only ones not to jump around than they would if they just went with the flow?
• A pair of good performance by the Wolverines, beating the teams they should. Now they have to pull off a surprise or two in the Garden.

Labels: basketball, jevohn shepherd, Manny Harris, still not football, stu douglass, zach novak

Oh god, the football season must be really bad…

Last year, Michigan finished 148th in the nation in Jeff Sagarin’s college basketball rating system. This is a bad thing, and the 10-22 record would certainly speak to that. However, there are a few caveats that may give a little hope to UM basketball fans in regards to the upcoming year. First, last year’s record was compiled against the 7th most-difficult schedule in the nation. The teams with more difficult schedules than the Wolverines are as follows:

1. Arizona (36th in final Sagarin Ratings)
2. Georgia Tech (63rd in final Sagarin Ratings)
3. Southern Cal (26th in final Sagarin Ratings)
4. Texas (6th in final Sagarin Ratings)
5. Tennessee (9th in final Sagarin Ratings)
6. Illinois (73rd in final Sagarin Ratings)

Of course, all of these teams finished well ahead of Michigan in the final standings. A tough strength of schedule helps Sagarin rating, so unless you are a bad team (as Michigan certainly was last year), it makes sense that there is something of a correlation between the two metrics. Michigan, however, went 1-10 against the final top 25 and 1-13 against the final top 50 (the lone win came against Ohio State the night of Rich Rodriguez's introduction).

The schedule isn’t leaps and bound easier this year, however, with games at Maryland and against Duke in the first semester, along with (hopefully) a pair against highly-regarded teams in the Coaches v. Cancer Classic. Duke, UCLA, and Southern Illinois are the other hosts and likely favorites to make it to the Garden. Michigan would face off against UCLA in a hypothetical semi-final where all the favorites win. On top of the conference slate, the Wolverines play UConn in Storrs February 7th.

So why should there be confidence for Michigan basketball fans this year? The most important reason is the coach. John Beilein is undoubtedly a system coach, and a damn good one at that (check out Brian's offensive efficiency conclusions). Having one year to install his system, without players that he recruited, can only be expected to be a disaster (just as Rich Rodriguez is learning now). Now Beilein has been able to prepare his players for a much longer period of time. Both offensively and defensively, the players should improve somewhat.

Speaking of the players, essentially all of the important ones except Ekpe Udoh return, and there are a few notable additions. Beilein recruits Stu Douglass and Zach Novak are long-range bombers with the ability to handle the ball a bit. Both perfectly fit the system. Ben Cronin is a bigman with an outside touch. Laval Lucas-Perry was with the team last year (meaning he already has a year of the system under his belt), but was ineligible to compete because he was a transfer student; he will join the active roster after first semester exams.

So, if I haven’t at least drummed up a bit of excitement for Michigan basketball, I guess there’s none to be found. However, if nothing else, this team deserves support because it wears the maize and blue. The season starts tomorrow with an exhibition against Saginaw Valley. Watch it on BigTenNetwork.com at 7pm. Go Blue!

Labels: basketball, still not football

Everyone in Big Ten country (except for maybe Indiana) is saying the same thing: Go Blue!It is refreshing to see Ohio sporting the color blue. Now we're totally even for the past 7 years...

Labels: I posted, still not football

It's the one day every four years where America decides who will be the Chief Executive of our country for the next term. In that spirit, let's decide on a few things in the realm of Michigan football. Leave your ballots in the comments section, with justifications for your choices if you so desire.

President
The player that you think is the best leader on the team. This may not be the same as your secretary choices.

Secretary of Defense
The Defensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of Offense
The Offensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of the Interior
My lame attempt at a Terrance Taylor joke.

Most Deserving of Impeachment
The one coach that you think Michigan absolutely needs to get rid of, ASAP.

Labels: awards, football, still not football

Not the blog, punks.

If you're a Michigan student who has any interest in football, I urge you to check out the TV version of Varsity Blue. If you're interested in joining the crew, show up on the west side of South Quad's 9th floor today at 6:30.

As a producer emeritus of the show, I recommend checking it out, I loved it in my undergrad days (and it led to my starting this here blog). If you're interested but can't make it today or want more information, e-mail the producer, Alex Prasad, at atprasad@umich.edu.

Labels: still not football, tee vee

Sure, they aren't the Big Ten, but several Big Ten teams play at least one MAC school every year, so it may be interesting to see how the schools from the other conference in the Midwest are doing. There will also be a post-signing day edition of the MAC recruiting rankings.

New Rankings:

#1 Central Michigan - 22 commits
OL	***	Jeff Fantuzzi
LB	***	Jeff Fenton
LB	***	Will Schwartz
DE	**	Justice Akuezue
RB	**	Malek Redd
RB	**	Zurlon Tipton
OL	**	Aaron McCord
OL	**	Jon Czierwienski
DB	**	Jason Johnson
WR	**	Cody Wilson
WR	**	Rodney Woodland
WR	**	Deja Alexander
RB	**	Laron Eaddy
WR	**	Jarrett Fleming
TE	**	Bobby James
DE	**	Aaron Kaczmarski
OL	**	Dominic Mainello
DE	**	Cody Pettit
ATH	**	Tim Phillips
OL	**	Adam Schneid
ATH	**	DJ Scott
OL	**	Eric Fisher

I actually think a couple of Central's commits are underrated by Rivals. Redd, for example, got a pretty good look from Michigan at their summer camp. Same goes for Akuezue. He is rated low now because he is a DE who weighs about 30 pounds soaking wet, but he was virtually unblockable at Michigan's camp. If he can add weight and maintain his explosiveness, he could be a very good player down the road.

Labels: recruiting, still not football

Not that you aren't already, but it's time to make it official, since we all know that Facebook is more real than real life.

Become a fan of Varsity Blue on Facebook.

Labels: blog news, still not football

Hooray Alliteration!

Is Ann Arbor TitleTown?

Be part of ESPN's TitleTown segment on Ann Arbor!

Come to the Diag on Monday, July 14th at 11am in order to participate in the taping of this segment.*
*Taping will begin at noon and finish at 1pm

Former Michigan Great Desmond Howard will be on hand for the interview portion.

For more information, visit sports.espn.go.com/espn/titletown/index.

Labels: boring offseason, still not football

Tim got a new camera. What better way to test it out than head down to the corner of Main and East Stadium.

I work on the top floor of South Quad so I can kind of get an aerial view of the stadium. The construction is definitely impressive. It's going to look amazing when it's done.

Labels: I posted, stadium renovation, still not football

Sorry for the lazy afternoon post. The previews are taking a long time to complete, and I want to get to work on finishing them.

Interesting article from the Free Press about Northwestern's signal stealing spoiled by Michigan's ball boys in the national championship season.

OSU blog Dotting The I recently built a basketball team out of its best football players. I'll refrain from doing the same for Michigan (mostly because the fotball players would probably beat the Michigan basketball team at their own game).

Sticking with the Buckeyes, Victoria's Secret Pink will be offering merchandise featuring the logos of several universities - but not OSU. Interested case, though, like Dotting the I, I don't see how there is a major conflict of interest unless OSU gets different benefits than all the other schools.

Labels: football, ohio state hate, still not football

Since I don't have (free) access to the internet right now, expect the next major posting from me (aside from the ones I already have scheduled) to come next Friday, or maybe even Thursday depending on the amount of jet lag I am suffering.

A few people have e-mailed me questions, which I will compile into a fairly sizable mailbag on my way back from Australia, and you can also expect a fairly massive recruiting update (including such fun items as "a new commit"), along with an update to the Big Ten rankings. By the way, you have Paul to thank for finding a new basketball commit to be unworthy of a post. I might get something together on Robin Benzing when I get back as well.

See you all in less than a week.

Labels: programming update, still not football

Most Michigan fans follow football in the fall and ice hockey (if you like watching a good team) or basketball (if you're a masochist) in the winter. Many spring sports don't seem to get the same attention that the other seasons do. It could be because there's no revenue sport or, more likely, a large part of their seasons are played after students leave campus for the summer.

Well, I've been in Ann Arbor the past two summers and have noticed that the spring sports have been ridiculously good the past two years. Women's track and field finished with a share of the Big Ten title last year and was runner up this year. The male runners won the title outright this year.

This year, women's tennis made it to the second round NCAA tournament, while the men made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Both teams improved upon somewhat breakout seasons the year before.

Then there is baseball and softball. Both teams last year made it to the super regionals and gave the teams they played hell. I remember watching baseball's first game against Oregon State in the Super Regional. Zach Putnam pitched a ridiculously good game. He only gave up one hit, but unfortunately that one hit brought in a run which was enough to earn Putnam the loss. It was one of the best baseball games I had seen.

As well as those teams did last year, the prospects are looking even better this year. One of the biggest reasons is the new Wilpon Baseball and Softball Palace Complex. Last year both teams played on the road in the Super Regional round. Michigan did not even put in a bid for either sport as the stands and press boxes were torn apart for the new construction. This year is different. Now Michigan has one of the nicer facilities, especially in the Midwest. Softball hosted and won its regional and will hope to do the same when it hopes the Super Regional this weekend. Baseball also has a very good chance of hosting it's Super Regional series if it made it out of the regional round.

The new Ray Fisher Stadium will be getting it's first test of a large baseball event when it hosts the Big Ten Tournament this weekend. In an e-mail from the media contact for baseball he said "With the new Press Box there is ample room, but I need to know who is coming so I can have Press Credentials waiting in your name." which is a drastic change from last year when the media room was a tent behind Yost.

If you are in the area, check out baseball and softball this weekend. The schedule for the Big Ten tournament isn't posted yet, but softball is set to play Virginia Tech at Noon this Saturday. Even if you're not in town, you can catch the softball team on ESPN and I assume BTN will cover the tournament.

It could be a special year for both of these teams. They deserve all the support they can get.

UPDATE: Details about ticket prices and availability for baseball are here. Similar details for the softball super regional tickets are here. Take-home points: Baseball is $7 per game. Softball is $5 for general admission bleachers or $7-$8 for the nice, new grandstand.

Labels: athletics, baseball, facilities, I posted, softball, spring, still not football

Michigan leads in the charity bowl, and it's time to seal the deal.

Plus, boobs.

Labels: still not football

I'm sure you've seen this elsewhere in the Michigan blogosphere, and may already be sick of it, but it's time to participate in the Charity Bowl. And hey, if you get sick of it, maybe you'll donate just to shut all of us up.

How? EDSBS:

1) Make a donation online to the American Red Cross, CARE, or the International Rescue Committee.

2) Email the donation confirmation to kevin@fanblogs.com and state your team affiliation by 8pm EDT on Wednesday, May 14th.

3) Results will be displayed at Every Day Should Be Saturday and Fanblogs throughout the week, with the final results shown by Thursday, May 15th.

4) The winning school will have its colors displayed at EDSBS and logo/mascot shown on every page at Fanblogs.

Let's Go Blue for a good cause.

Labels: still not football

No but seriously, basketball?

One of the most important aspect of running a successful athletic department is being able to rely on your revenue sports to support everything else that goes on. Under Bill Martin, Michigan has been able to turn from a money sink into one of the nation's most successful athletic programs (monetarily) despite not having a basketball team that has been anywhere close to successful. Thus, if Michigan is able to make the basketball team a big draw, and perennial NCAA tournament participant-type program, it can only continue to help.

Without further introduction, I present the basketball-relevant portion of Bill Martin's interview with the BTN's Dave Revsine:


It is clear that Martin is intent on supporting basketball, and trying to bring success back to the program.

Facilities
Crisler Arena is a dump. Regardless of what Martin says, it really should just be demolished, and the AD should start over from scratch (a few suggestions: smaller size, better concourse layout, and location closer to campus (ok, that one is just a pipe dream)). Failing that, The House that Cazzie Built is eventually going to be overhauled for the better, though definitely not until Michigan Stadium is completed, and probably not until there is a practice facility. The practice facility is apparently ready for approval. The sooner that can be completed, the better for Michigan Hoops. Interesting note: Martin stated in no uncertain terms that the funding for a facility will be ready whenever plans are completed.

Recruiting
Martin states that he doesn't want his coach to recruit players who want to go one-and-done to the pros. Luckily for him, the coach he hired is John Beilein, who does not seem to favor this type of player (and nor does his system). Martin favors the NBA amending its entry rules to require players to spend 3 years in school (I believe they should probably step it up one year at a time).

The Future
Though Beilein was unable to get it done in year one, the improvement made by the team over the course of the year was encouraging, and it is unlikely we will see 2008-09 be a repeat of the epic struggles of 2007-08. With several players accustomed to the system after one year in it, and a few new additions who are good fits for Beileinball, an NIT bid isn't out of the question. Though that may not be good enough for some fans, it is important to remember how far this program had fallen, and realize that it will take some time to rise again.

Udoh
Rumors have been circulating for weeks that Junior-to-be Power Forward Ekpe Udoh intends to transfer from the University of Michigan. This has now become official. While I am not sure he is making the right decision (though UMHoops.com's analysis has certainly gone a long way to convince me), I wish Udoh the best of luck in the future.

Labels: athletics, basketball, bill martin, ekpe udoh, still not football