"He's still basically committed to U-M, but I said there is nothing wrong with going to visit a few schools. There is nothing wrong with that."
This doesn't sound too bad. Also, the article says he won't announce his decision until the Army game, which would contradict a recent assertion that he will enroll early. NJ DE Anthony LaLota. Michigan and PSU are widely regarded to be his de facto top 2. Also, Scout indicates that he is likely deciding soon. MI S Thomas Gordon. The Cass Tech player has said he'd be a near-lock to Michigan were he to get an offer, and now he has it (info in header). Is his commitment just a matter of time? FL S Jonathan Scott. His brother transfers from OSU. I guess coming to Michigan would no longer let them engage in sibling rivalry. MS S Dennis Thames. Fluff, including top schools (Michigan still up there). His injury will keep him out 4-6 weeks.
Removed: MI RB Hersey Jackson. He is out for the season with an injury. He hadn't earned a Michigan offer, and needed a big senior year to get one. So much for that idea.
Analysis: Like I said immediately in the wake of the Campbell "decommitment," nothing has really changed for Big Will. When he was "committed" he said he'd take 5 visits and probably pick Michigan, and following his "decommitment," he's saying... that he'll take 5 visits and probably pick Michigan. On that basis alone, there's nothing to freak out about (if we didn't really have him before, did we really lose him).
Etc.: NC S Devonte Holloman. He will take visits other than Clemson. Typical "not including elsewhere-committed prospects" rules apply, but keep in mind that one of them will be to Michigan. He is planning to enroll early, fwiw. MI WR Commit Bryce McNeal. A bit of fluffy stuff. TX QB Commit Shavodrick Beaver. Don't forget, he plays on ESPN2 in a couple hours.
Michigan Targets Visiting South Bend This Weekend: NC OL Xavier Nixon (though he's not on the board anymore, could a strong game from the Wolverines rekindle his interest in Michigan?). SC DE Chris Bonds (have seen a "maybe" next to this one).
Chen Geng (whose name can be pronounced in such a way that it sounds eerily/hilariously similar to "chain gang"):
Since it seems this season will go where the OL goes, what's the injury history been for RR's WVU teams? Did Barwis use chocolate milk to make their knees unbreakable?
Much thanks for the site.
It is my (and a generally-held) opinion that injuries are mostly freak occurences, and you can only prepare for them so much. That said, West Virginia has had a lot of luck (or injury prevention ability, if you believe in such a thing) over the past couple years. They bring back five starters this year, all of whom started most of last year except the right tackle, who started the final 6 contests.
Michigan, by contrast, started a smorgasbord of starting lineups, with Jake Long, Justin Boren, and Adam Kraus the only consistent starters (and even then Kraus and Boren trading starts at two different positions). Alex Mitchell, Corey Zirbel, Steve Schilling, Jeremy Ciulla, Mark Ortmann, etc., all started games as well. Of course, part of this was due to lack of production, rather than injuries (though they played a big part as well), but you can see that consistency is a big part of success.
So, it appears as though West Virginia has been mostly lucky in the past few years in terms of keeping starters along the O-line uninjured. If you believe that Barwis's exercises have some sort of magical ligament-fortifying power (Corey Zirbel would tend to disagree), then the futur might look bright for Michigan offensive lines.
Tony in Markley (for the record, I love the use of dorm name for location, rather than, you know, where you're from):
So, uh, what would a Forcier commit mean in comparison to Michigan just keeping Newsome committed?
Well, for the short-term, it is much, much better. Forcier is the most ready of all of Michigan's quarterback prospects to step in a contribute right away. Like many of the SoCal QB prodigies (yes, including Jimmy Clausen), he has a private QB tutor, so his mechanics and reads, etc., are well ahead of your average high schooler. That, in combination with his predicted early enrollment, would mean he might be able to challenge for a starting job in 2009. That said, any true freshman is going to be a liability as a starting QB, but Forcier would be the best to step in as a true.
In the long-term, Newsome has a higher ceiling as a prospect. He is taller, faster, probably a little stronger in the arm department. That said, he is raw as a quarterback. Even an early enrollment (which he is/was also planning on doing) wouldn't be enough time to get a QB like Newsome ready to play as a true freshman. However, he could have been an unstoppable beast down the road, once he became familiar with the responsibilities of the quarterback, and capable of doing what he needs to do to succeed.
I'll also take this opportunity to give a WTF to the stated reason for his decommitment. Newsome's father said he "heard" (ed note: this means the coach at another school, with no motivation to lie whatsoever) that Michigan wouldn't give Kevin a legitimate shot at playing quarterback. Instead, he "heard" that they would give him one chance then switch his position. This does not make sense. The Newsomes believed the most obvious bullshit negative recruiting about THE ONE school that had no intentions of ever even considering making Kevin play anything other than quarterback.
Matt from Louisiana (since I've had parenthetical commentary on each commenter so far, I'll disclose that I know Matt personally, and he wasn't expecting my answer to come in mailbag form):
Tim,
This individual was not the first to suggest such an idea:
http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/209097
But what are you thoughts on a SEC-Big 10 Challenge over Labor Day weekend (ala Big 10-ACC challenge on the hardwood)? As the NFL would not have started, you can have games on 3 days. You would rotate sites and let the 6th place team in SEC East/West (rotate) sit out. In the current state of college football, this is merely interesting fodder for discussion. However, upon moving to a playoff system (which will happen eventually), I think school presidents will value the growth of their sport (and ratings and revenue) over playing a really tough game (and a potential loss) the first weekend of the season.
-Matt
Corso makes Gameday go. I can only listen to the smart Herbstreit talk college football for about 1.5 hours. But I will stick around for 2 hours to see that PLUS Corso's antics.
Matt, as the proud proprietor of a blog, I reserve the right to condescendingly answer your question in mailbag form, rather than the simple e-mail that you definitely would have preferred.
However, from a strictly economic sense, I'm not sure that this would be a guaranteed way to make more money. Take the excuse of Bill Martin for not playing a tougher out-of-conference schedule (which, essentially, this would be forcing schools from each conference to do): they simply can't afford it. Of course "can't afford it" is secret code for "can make more money with a different system," in this case playing Notre Dame and a rotating series of tomato cans. If you guarantee 3 home games, and shell out a half-million bucks to the helpless opponents (helpless unless, of course, it's Appalachian State - too soon?), you are still netting more than going year-on, year-off in a home-and-home scenario, since you make the same amount off TV either way. Some teams, including those in the SEC, have neutral-site OOC games to make more money, but it is literally impossible to sell more tickets at any other venue than The Big House, Happy Valley, or The Shoe.
With the Big Ten locked into contracts with the Big Ten Network and ESPN, and the SEC's recently-signed deal with the ESPN family of networks, there isn't much of a way for the conferences or the schools themselves to make much more cash by playing a good OOC schedule. The networks can make more money by promising better ratings and charging more for ad time (which, technically, in the case of the BTN would make more money for conference schools), but this revenue typically doesn't trickle down to the schools.
Also, there is the issue of coverage. Every weekend that Big Ten teams are in action, the BTN is guaranteed at least three games to cover. In SEC country, that would mean 3 SEC games that fans can't see (and, knowing SEC fans, they wouldn't even PPV the games, because they wouldn't dare contribute money to the Big Ten).
While I think that such an idea would be good for college football, in addition to being downright entertaining (and perhaps being a yearly notch in the conference supremacy belt), when it's all about the benjamins, a Big Ten-SEC Challenge isn't an economically preferred system.
As far as the GameDay thing, Orson Swindle posted a pretty good synopsis of my feelings about it under his flesh name over at The Sporting Blog.
Huge update this week. There is actually more that will have to wait to Monday because this update is so JAM-PACKED. Anyway, here's the board.
Moved to Committed: TX K Anthony Fera.
Added: A kicker category to the board. Thanks, Fera, ya jerk. Maybe in the light of more recent developments, I shouldn't be calling anyone committed to Michigan a jerk.
Moved from Committed: VA QB Kevin Newsome.
New Information: CA QB Tate Forcier. August 30th visit (info in header). GA WR Braxton Lane. Skipping football this fall to focus on baseball. Sounds unlikely he'll hit the gridiron in college. NC OL Travis Bond. His official visit is set for October 25. VA DE Will Hill. Fluff. SC DE Chris Bonds. Michigan and Notre Dame won't move into his highest group until after he has a chance to see campus. They are still in his top 5. OH DE Tank Carradine. Does he have an offer? He's been working on his grades. FL LB Brandin Hawthorne has set up 5 official visits, despite planning a decision before any of them. If Michigan is his choice on August 30, expect him to either forget about the other visits or not be given all the priviledges (i.e. having a spot saved for you) of a true commit. OK CB Gabe Lynn. His friend (and former UM target) David Gordon is trying to lure him to Arkansas. Lynn's junior highlights.
Removed: PA WR Todd Thomas. He may have trouble qualifying. That may explain why Michigan never really seemed interested, despite his early love for the Wolverines.
Etc.: MN WR commit Bryce McNeal is a speed prospect, but is currently too skinny to be considered speed and size. Paging Mike Barwis, who will have McNeal built like an All-American in no time flat. TX QB commit Shavodrick Beaver welcomes competition. I was so much more into this article when there was someone in the class for him to compete with.
Analysis: Recruiting changes from the developing Newsome situation outlined here. On the defensive end front, Michigan still really needs people. Though Tank Carradine is now reporting an offer, his recruitment remains under the radar, likely because of qualifying issues of his own.
Kevin Newsome has decommitted from Michigan as per Scout (info in header). While this doesn't necessarily mean that Newsome will go elsewhere, it is obviously not a good sign. Luckily for Michigan, even if Newsome does decide to go elsewhere there are two other high caliber guys (Tate Forcier and Eugene Smith) who are still interested and available.
More info later.
Non-Informative Update: For those of you sad about Newsome, hopefully this helps:
New Information: FL TE Orson Charles. He loved his Miami visit, and Georgia appears to be the only other school under serious consideration. He is teetering dangerously close to removal. PA WR Todd Thomas. Pitt leads. He is also fairly close to removal. MD DE Jason Ankrah. One local media video piece. Two local media video pieces. GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore. Knows where he is taking all official visits (Michigan is one). OK CB Gabe Lynn. Still no favorite.
Etc.: Want to see Pahokee play in person (and likely Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne commit)? There are tickets available. Bastrop (DE commit DeQuinta Jones, WR target Rueben Randle) will have a game on the ESPN family of networks. Much annoyance to the abundance of articles talking exactly how many games are going to be on ESPN without saying which games. In case you're curious, Western Branch is figuring what to do without Newsome. According to Sam Webb, Michigan may not be out of it for Oku. I'll leave him off the board for now.
Removed: AL DE William Ming. Alabama commit. IN LB TyQuan Hammock. After not getting the Michigan offer he wanted, commits to Michigan State.
Analysis: Hooray, a defensive end! Michigan will want at least one more in this class, likely a speed rusher. Other sources of celebration: Reassurance on the Newsome front! Hooray!
It's time to respond to a post that I find to be completely off-base regarding Kevin Newsome. You may remember the author from giving us an insight or two on Newsome and Jelani Jenkins a while back, but I'm not going to link the source article, since it was particularly dickish when all I've done is give the guy hits:
For any of the folks from the Varsity Blue web site that as still visiting, let me say, to quote the great poet Henry Rollins: "HA HA HA, sucker! Sucker!" Did you really think you were going to get Kevin Newsome out of the 757? You are a total idiot for doubting me. His brother, rising junior standout Keevon Newsome, wants to go to Vah-tech, and Kevin Newsome is already concerned that Michigan is going to present some problems. You don't leave your native school to go to Hargrave because your grades are above the line, so he obviously has some academic problems. Nobody is as accomodating of academic and behavioral shortcomings as Frank Beamer, and none of Rich-Rod's shady, illegal recruiting tactics are going to change that. A lot of people with optics into this one tell me it is already done and that Newsome will formally back out of his verbal to Michigan and commit to Vah-Tech before the season starts. For all you Varsity Blue dorks, my prediction remains unchanged: Kevin Newsome will be a Hokie, and Jim Tressel will bitch-slap the Wolverines for another five straight years (at least).
I highly doubt Kevin Newsome would be the president of his high school chapter of National Honor Society if he had grade issues. Thus, it must follow that he is going to Hargrave for other reasons. Could one of these reasons be to get away from the pressure within the 757 to go to VT? It certainly follows logically, especially when you take into account that Newsome's new head coach at Hargrave is particularly fond of making his players remain true to verbal commitments.
Also, Keevon is a big VT fan, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up there. However, if Kevin was going to do the same, wouldn't he have taken the opportunity of the VT camp to take a visit (especially considering Keevon was there for the camp).
I won't even bother to respond to the allegations of sady recruiting tactics (dumb) or the touting of Frank Beamer as a sketchy character. Both are laughable.
For more information on Michigan's quarterback situation, check out the Free Press. Even if Newsome does back out of his verbal, Michigan has a couple slightly less-touted contingency plans.
Removed: SC QB/S Stephon Gilmore. Michigan is out of his top group. FL CB Brandon McGee. Has made decision plans, Michigan not among the schools considered. IA WR Keenan Davis. Will not decide until signing day, no apparent M interest. TN WR Marlon Brown. Trimmed list, no Michigan. NC CB Terry Shankle. Michigan eliminated.
Added: CA QB Tate Forcier. He refuses to stop mentioning Michigan, so it would be inappropriate to not at least include him on the board. FL QB Eugene Smith. Ditto. CA OG Michael Philipp. Michigan is interested and he wants to visit AA. MD DE Jason Ankrah. Offered:
Jason has offers from Illinois, Oregon, Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Syracuse and others. Jason said he attended North Carolina, North Carolina State, Syracuse and Penn State Junior Days.
“We have a rule that, even if that young man, Newsome, wanted to come to our school, he would have to play on the high-school team. We don’t jump over our high-school team.”
Removed: NC QB Everett Proctor. Michigan seemed to be offering him as a draw to Xavier Nixon, who has eliminated Michigan. PA OL Adam Gress. Final 2 doesn't include Michigan. And also, he committed to Penn State. IL OL Chris Watt. Wolverines out of his final 8. PA DT Levi Brown. Committed to Temple. MS DT Josh Boyd. Committed to Mississippi State. AZ DE Devon Kennard. Michigan did not make his final 5 (USC, UCLA, ASU, Cal, Texas).
Analysis: So, uh, any other DTs? At this point, there doesn't seem to be a high correlation between guys who have offers and guys that Michigan can realistically land. If the coaches want another tackle in this class, I expect to see some more offers go out soon. If they landed somebody like Chris Bonds, he could conceivably move from end to tackle, but there isn't exactly a glut of DEs, either.
As everyone likely knows by now, Michigan commit Kevin Newsome has decided to transfer from Western Branch High School, and will instead enroll at Hargrave Military Academy for his senior football season. Despite still being a high schooler, Newsome will participate on the post-graduate football team.
Most recruiting fans are only familiar with Hargrave Military Academy because of prospects who graduate from high school, but don't have the grades to qualify for college. Hargrave has a post-graduate program for "5th-year seniors" to improve their grades enough to qualify for college, while still playing football. Newsome doesn't have this issue because:
He is going to Hargrave for his senior year, not after he graduates (the first time).
He is a good student (NHS member, class president, etc.)
It seems like he has a good head on his shoulders, so I doubt it's because he needs to get grade or discipline issues sorted out. I would think it's something more along the lines of being prepared for college football (and Barwis!).
As for whether this is good for Michigan, I'm not sure. Hargrave seems to be pretty good about keeping college coaches away from already-committed players, but at the same time, they have a good relationship with Virginia Tech's coaching staff (3 cadets moved on to Virginia Tech just last year). Obviously, since Virginia Tech is one of the main competitor's for Newsome's services, that is slightly worrisome. However, Newsome's former high school coach seems to be putting some pro-VT pressure on Newsome:
"I thought when he picked Michigan, he jumped the gun a little bit, and I was disappointed," Johnston said. "I told him that." "We're very close, and I've told him I'd like to see him stay closer to home," Johnston said. "I'm not going to push it, but there's something about playing in your home state."
It seems like Kevin might be trying to avoid those around him giving him undeserved grief for not picking their favorite school. Without knowing for sure why Newsome is moving to Hargrave, and how well-received Michigan's coaches are at that school (Rodriguez did get a commitment from a Cadet before moving on to Michigan last year), it is impossible to know whether this move impacts Michigan positively or negatively. Of course, down the road, it will be interesting to see whether this also affects Newsome's younger brother, Keevon.
And of course, the Free Press takes this as incontovertible evidence that Newsome's commitment to Michigan will not be honored.
Since a lot of people have been asking how I am doing, I'll just start off by saying: considering the circumstances, I'm doing great. I can move around without a ton of pain, which is something most people who fall four stories can't say (they usually can't say anything because they die). Here is what an x-ray image of a broken spine looks like: Pretend like I posted almost the exact same image 3 times. Now you know what my L1-L3 vertebrae look like. I am walking, talking, and (clearly) typing, so thanks to everyone for the kind words you gave earlier. And now for a couple of actually relevant things:
2. Rumor has it that that Jeremy Gallon has grades troubles and thats why some bigger schools passed on him. Any truth to that? Also is there any video of gallon
1. I have yet to figure out whether Jones is even a '09 or '10 prospect. There is precious little about him on the internet, and I think this "offer" sounds a little questionable. Where are the Scout and Rivals interviews with the kid (or even a profile on one of the two sites)?
Another thing I question on this topic is why the Free Press is writing about this offer. Michigan has offered tons of kids at this point, and this is the first one that the Freep has taken the time to write (read: plagiarize) and article about. Sounds a little questionable in terms of writer's motives.
2. I have heard this, but it doesn't really seem to make a ton of sense. Sure, RR isn't afraid of recruiting a kid because of possible grades issues, but then, neither are most of the schools in the SEC. There has to be another reason why schools didn't pursue this kid.
I think it is primarily because he is tiny (reports range from 5-6 to 5-9), and few schools have need for tiny guys like Michigan has need for tiny guys. Another factor is that he will have to change positions, and perhaps take a while to be ready to play. If Michigan was not scrambling to fill all the roster spaces for slotmen, perhaps someone like Gallon would have had to wait until later in the recruiting process for an offer.
As far as Gallon video, this is the best (free) one I've been able to find. If any enterprising readers find something else, drop me a line.
I've also gotten about 30 versions of this question:
What's the deal with Tate Forcier?
I have no idea. It certainly seemed like Michigan was going to be done with '09 quarterbacks with Kevin Newsome and Shavodrick Beaver committed. However, Tate Forcier still came to Ann Arbor for Michigan's senior camp, and appears to be strongly interested in the Wolverines.
Are Rich Rodriguez and Co. just leading the kid on? Or are they keeping him in mind as an insurance policy of either of the other guys jumps ship? Maybe he just refuses to let them drop him as a prospect. It may be too early to tell at this point, but I think Michigan has its two guys, and Tate will be on the outside looking in, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Paul:
Whatever happened to the combined recruiting board with MGoBlog?
Brian and I tried to come up with a simple solution that would be easy for both of us to access and maintain, and when nothing came up quickly, the project was sort of shelved/forgotten. In all honesty, I think it might serve a good purpose to maintain separate ones, as it leads to more information getting out overall, about a wide range of prospects. For now, don't expect to see a combined recruiting board any time soon.
While it is not news to anyone who follows the Big Ten that Penn State fans have an... uncomfortable fixation on Michigan, typically this has been restricted to fans. Nittany Lions supporters have a focus on Michigan that seems unwarranted but for the Wolverines' dominance over PSU in recent years. Now, even those who write in the mainstream media have latched onto the obsession as a crutch for writing their terrible columns (entire relevant section quoted to avoid giving this idiot clickthroughs):
An interesting sidebar to these rankings: How much will they be different if QB Kevin Newsome winds up in a Penn State uniform? He committed to Michigan earlier, but all indications are that Penn State is still recruiting him hard. So much for the gentlemen's agreement between Big Ten teams about not talking to verbal committments. What years of sportsmanship and living up to one's word built up, Rich Rodriguez and Michael Shaw tore down.
While I don't need to point how how dumb the bolded portion of this quote is (nor do I need to point out that Donnie Collins doesn't know how to spell "gentleman's" or "commitment"), I will anyway.
Of course, due to a highly-publicized quote from Joe Tiller, suddenly Rich Rodriguez is to blame for Penn State's recruiting tactics. Umm... what? If he wants to try to hold Penn State up as a bastion of sportsmanship, maybe he shouldn't do so in reference to an incident where they are doing something he deems to be "unsporting." If Penn State was as virtuous as Collins intends to imply, they wouldn't be recruiting Newsome, regardless of what Michigan did last year.
In addition, it's great to see him trying to slam an 18-year-old kid for picking a school that he liked more than Penn State. If Penn State was worth going to, Shaw would have ended up there. Rich Rodriguez is not some sort of hypnotist. Of course, Shaw wasn't even the recruit that caused the "controversy" in the first place (that would be Roy Roundtree).
And of course, Collins's entire argument hinges on the presumption that Rodriguez was the first coach to recruit other schools' commits, which (actually good) columnist Sam Webb pointed out to be not at all true in an unfortunately-no longer free Detroit News article.
Those who follow Michigan recruiting are likely aware that top quarterback commit Kevin Newsome is an elite track athlete. Newsome was an indoor All-American in the 60m hurdles, and now he is a state champ in outdoor track as well.
Newsome's Western Branch team won the state title, thanks in part to Newsome's victory in the 100m hurdle event. If simply reading about Newsome's track exploits isn't gratifying enough for you, take the time to indulge yourself in video of his championship performance:
Newsome is in the 5th lane, wearing dark blue with white compression shorts. Note the fact that he's twice the size of most of the kids he's running against.
Newsome also gave an interview to Milestat.com, available here. He doesn't say anything that could be considered directly relevant to football, but it's always nice to hear from Michigan commits to get an idea of what they are like as people.
Congratulations to Kevin, and we look forward to seeing him in Ann Arbor... though if he plans to enroll early, it does mean he'll have to forgo track his senior year.
This edition of the mailbag will cover some of the e-mails people sent while I was gone. This time, it will be the ones related to recruiting.
Tom asks:
In the past week it was announced that Virginia Tech is pulling a scholarship offer from a QB recruit over some legal problems the kid was having. Prior to Newsome declaring his intent to Michigan, he was pretty much considered “in the bag” at VT. So, my question is, how strong a verbal is he to us ?? Can/will we lose him ??
And I have gotten other people asking similar versions of this question, such as this one from penst8grad:
Ignore the email address, lifelong Wolverine fan here. Couldn't afford the out of state tuition.
Local Penn State homer radio network is reporting that Newsome is having second thoughts and is going to visit schools. They honestly think they have a pretty good shot at him.
Do you know anything about this?
As far as the Penn State angle, I would take anything Nittany Lion homers say with a grain of salt. They have a major Michigan complex, and taking a QB committed to Michigan is something that many Penn State fans would have wet dreams about. It seems like something spoken out of hope rather than reality.
Overall, however, I can't speak (other than from logic) on this situation. Since I've been out of the loop for three weeks, this is the most comprehensive answer I can give at this time. If something has developed since I left, I will certainly update the situation.
Fans were worried when there were rumblings from Virginia that Kevin Newsome might consider reneging on his verbal commitment because he wanted Rich Rodriguez to accept fewer quarterbacks. Many took this to mean that he was opposed to the commitment of Shavodrick Beaver, but since it has become clear that Michigan does not intend to take a third quarterback, the noise has quieted down.
Virginia Tech would have taken Newsome over the QB commit that they already had either way. He is one of the top-rated QBs in the country. He picked Michigan based on factors other than QBs coming in the class with him. Depth chart (VT may be redshirting Tyrod Taylor this year, making Newsome a year further away from getting on the field), education (VT is… a decent but not elite school), and coaching style (Michigan’s spread seems to be tailor-made for Newsome) all played a role.
Kevin Newsome seemed entirely confident in his choice of schools, and has not ever mentioned that he wants to take other visits. Another good sign is the fact that he has been recruiting other players for the 2009 class. It appears as though Newsome is quite solid. Unless something dramatic happens between Newsome and the Michigan coaching staff, expect to see Kevin on campus come January.
Commenter Thruline asks:
What's up with Iowa? They were able to get quality players much more readily in times past.
Iowa had a few of pretty good recruiting classes around 2002-2005. The reasons this isn’t happening anymore are many:
Competition. When Iowa was reeling in top classes, Illinois was a bad program with a bad coach. Notre Dame was being run into the ground by Ty Willingham. While neither Ron Zook nor Charlie Weis is a gret football coach, both are excellent recruiters (and are trying to build better staffs to make up for their inadequacies on the field). Iowa’s good classes came mostly from Chicago’s top players when there was almost nobody to fight against for them. Now, there are two better options for recruits, and Iowa has to pick up the leftovers from the Illini and Irish.
Iowa’s case is also a textbook example of poor results on the field leading to worse recruiting returns off it. Iowa won back-to-back-to-back shares of the big ten title in ’02-’04, and this is when they were pulling down all the top guys. These teams succeeded with sleepers, overachievers, and the occasional top prospect. Since the more highly-ranked players have come in, Iowa has wasted their talent by underperforming on the field, and getting in tons of trouble off it. Top recruits simply don’t want to take on the risk of plying their trade in Iowa City.
I would expect that Iowa will continue to get middle of the pack recruiting classes in the Big Ten, but they will have to start performing better in order to regain footing among the elite recruiting teams in the country.
And frequent e-mailer RJ wonders:
I was wondering how you determine a player's ceiling
(In asking this question, RJ is referring to my posts about the ceilings and floors of the past two Michigan recruiting classes (2007) (2008)). Of course, like almost everything in recruiting, determining a player’s ceiling (maximum potential) is entirely subjective, as is determining the floor (minimum potential), though the floor is a little easier to determine based on polish and high school performance.
The ceiling is essentially based on a player’s untapped potential. Measurables are a pretty good indicator of possible ceiling levels. If a player runs a 4.4 forty, but had the same high school production as a player with a 4.7 forty, they have the same floor, but the faster player probably has the higher ceiling. A quarterback with a very strong arm but bad mechanics has a higher ceiling but lower floor than one with good mechanics and questionable arm strength.
In the end, it’s pretty much all guesswork, putting together all the limited clues we have about how a player might perform in college, and trying to determine actual college production.
Thanks for the good questions, everyone, and don't hesitate to ask more.
RJ furnishes us with a link, summarizes by giving us this snippet of information:
Sam Webb said this morning that the days of Michigan recruiting players that only play qb. Brandon McGee and a few other dual threats who play other positions are what they are looking for. Tate Forcier and all the other qbs can be pretty much taken off.
I removed all QBs except two categories when Shavodrick Beaver committed to Michigan:
Guys who could play another position and learn QB for emergency situations.
Tate Forcier.
It now sounds like Forcier can be removed from that list. However, I think the scope of RJ's message is a little overextended. For 2009, Michigan is probably done recruiting QBs (unless they are multiple-position guys), but in the future, if there's a Tate Forcier-type guy, they would take him. So, for this year, it means Forcier is off the board.
In case you were worried about Kevin Newsome's speed, check out this video of his 4x100 team winning the large school division at the Penn Relays.
Newsome is the anchor leg in lane 2(? second from nearest at the finish line, the guy who wins). He brings his team the victory.
Also, according to Sam Webb on today's edition of the Michigan Insider on WTKA, there may be other good QB news this week. Tate Forcier or Shavodrick Beaver may announce for Michigan this week.
Not a lot of action this week. Players that I haven't seen anything about lately (in terms of link to Michigan) may on the cusp of getting dropped (a couple of the quarterbacks, maybe a running back or two, probably safety).
The Board. With the Newsome thing, it will be interesting to see which other QBs continue to be interested in Michigan. One formatting note: committed players are now tacked to the top of their respective positions on the board.
Added: OK CB Gabe Lynn. He has an offer and is friends with RB prospect David Oku. He is one of the top cover CBs in the nation. SC DE Sam Montgomery. He reportedly has been offered by UM. A four-star prospect at a position of major need. GA S Darren Myles. He has a Michigan offer.
Removed: PA RB Jordan Hall. Michigan may have wanted him a bit for the slot position, but it is clear they had higher priorities there. His offer may have just been an attempt to get Terrelle Pryor to think harder about attending Michigan. MS DB David Conner. His listed height and weight have been falling ever since the initial evaluations came out, and it also appears that he won't leave the SEC.
Etc: For those of you who doubted my reasoning for having a big spring game (I'm lookin' at you, Charles), SI's Andy Staples agrees with me. 2-partinterview with Lloyd in the Free Press.
VA QB Kevin Newsome has given his word to become a Michigan Wolverine. Newsome is a 6-3, 212-pound player from Chesapeake, Virginia. He becomes the 6th commitment for Michigan's 2009 class. He is currently a high 4-star (the second rated dual-threat quarterback), and could end up a five-star when all is said and done. He is planning an early enrollment for the winter semester.
Player Notes Newsome, from Western Branch, is a Tebow-like Quarterback, a physical runner who is more like a linebacker than a safety (a la Pat White). However, he has more top-end speed than Tebow, running (and exceling) in various track events. His teammate, Javanti Sparrow (also a track athlete), is a cornerback who may be in the running for a Michigan offer down the road. Newsome is also a good student, participating in National Honors Society, and having considered other quality academic institutions like Northwestern and Duke.
At this year's Army Junior Combine, he measured 6-3.5, 205lbs (slightly taller than his listed 6-3, and lighter than 215, but he could have added that weight). He benched 18 reps of 185 pounds, right around the median at the event, and certainly among the strongest for QBs.. As far as speed, he did the agility drill in 4.29, among the fastest times there, and ran a very respectable (especially for a QB) 4.68 40-yard dash, at a slow event where Teric Jone's 4.47 tied for the fastest time there.
Recruiting Notes When Russell Shepard committed to LSU, not only did it mean Michigan's top prospect was off the board, but it also catapulted Newsome to #1 (or 1a, depending on your thoughts about Tate Forcier). Virginia Tech was considere the early favorite for Kevin Newsome, and even more so after another Virginia QB, Tajh Boyd, committed to West Virginia. Newsome received an early Michigan offer, and visited Ann Arbor for the spring game at Saline High school. While he enjoyed the game (in terrible weather), he still visited several other Midwest schools the following weekend - without stopping by Ann Arbor. However, a visit from Michigan coaches on the first day of the spring evaluation period to Western Branch High School solidified Michigan at the top of his list.
Video Youtube-ness.
Game winning drives? Check.
Et Cetera Newsome's younger brother, Keevon, is a 2010 DE prospect, who won MVP honors among D-linemen at a recent underclassman combine. Newsome's commitment has to put the Wolverines in good position with Newsome the younger as well, though he will probably start out a VT lean.
And of course, Newsome's teammate Javanti Sparrow is a 2009 CB prospect. It will be interesting to see if Michigan pursues him with Newsome in the fold.
Not a lot of guys have updates, but some dudes got dropped. Board.
Added: FL DT Antwan Lowery. He may be leaning towards Rutgers? TN OG Alex Bullard. He is now reporting a Michigan offer.
New Information: VA QB Kevin Newsome. A ton of people have e-mailed me with the MySpace thing, so I might as well post it. Apparently, he is blue? I wouldn't read too much into it. Maybe he just likes 90s pop-techno. Also, interesting ESPN article that VT may redshirt Tyrod Taylor. That would have to make the depth chart here look even more appealing in comparison. TX QB Shavodrick Beaver. Apparently TCU fans are up in arms over my post making fun of beloved member Zammers. I don't harbor any resentment towards the guy, he just said a lot of dumb things championing TCU over Michigan. I don't really care either way. Thanks to "mgoblu," who apparently registered for the board just to defend my post. Also, TCU fans, all no huddle spread offenses are not the same. Sorry.
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