The Situation There are 2 minutes and 28 seconds left in the third quarter, and Michigan's offense is like, kinda sucking. And by "kinda sucking" I mean "had 31 yards in the entire game prior to this drive." However, with 54 yards already racked up in this one drive, a touchdown would be the perfect thing to break the offensive funk. It would also put Michigan down by only 12 points, despite Wisconsin dominating most of the first three quarters. They might just be able to get back into the game...
The Personnel and Formation Michigan is on the right hash in a basic spread set. Brandon Minor is the running back to Steven Threet's left. Greg Mathews and Junior Hemingway are the wideouts to the left and right, respectively. In the left slot is Martavious Odoms. At slot on the right side is tight end Kevin Koger, appearing in a game for the first time this year. Wisconsin counters with a 3-2-6 dime package. The four CB/Nickel players are head up over the receivers. The linebackers are head up over Threet and Minor. The two safeties are deep.
The PlayAt the snap, Threet takes a 3-step drop. Minor sets as though he's pass blocking, though Wisconsin only comes on a three-man rush. Free of the duty of protecting Threet, Minor runs a short circle route out of the backfield. Odoms runs a 10-yard stop route. The other three receivers all run vertical routes, with Mathews and Hemingway on fly routes down the sideline, and Koger running a seam down the middle.
Wisconsin rushes the three linemen, runs man coverage on the receivers (and backs, including a spy on Threet), and has two safeties taking deep halves over the top. Threet goes deep to Koger, who is behind his defender. Koger makes the catch at the 6, and isn't hit by a safety until after he's in the endzone.
Why it Worked First things first, if your receivers are able to get open against man coverage, this is an effective play call against 2-man-under defense. Considering Wisconsin had a nickel corner lined up in press coverage against a TE, Koger should be able to get open, the question is whether he'll be able to maintain that separation. With his athleticism, Koger is able to defeat the defender down the field.
The wideouts on the outside are able to force the safeties to stay wide, so they aren't leaving their corners on an island (which they don't want to do in 2-man-under coverage - their duty is to defend anything over the top). That horizontal stretch allows Koger to catch the ball in the middle of the field in the seam between the deep men. Allow me to point out here that this is the point of Michigan's "look over to the sideline" no-huddle offense. The coaches in the booth saw two safeties high, and knew that a deep seam route would likely be effective. They told the coaches down on the field, who then relayed the read to Threet. One must assume that as he gets more comfortable with the offense (probably not until future years), Steve will be able to make these reads himself.
The protection on this play was also good. Michigan's dynamic offense forces the defense to account for every player, including the quarterback (though keep in mind that Michigan's offense had been anything but stellar at this point in the game). Because of that, Wisconsin had to rush only three men in order to man up on everyone and keep two safeties high. Michigan's offensive line, for all their difficulty run-blocking, has actually performed fairly well in protection so far this year, and the five blockers (which would have been four with Minor if the LB had blitzed) were easily able to corral the pass rush. Threet had enough time in the pocket to let Koger go deep, and the timing was perfect.
Massey from Buckeye Commentary offers his take on Michigan's win over Wisconsin. And hey! He actually watched the game this week.
What I saw…
Wow. I will tell you what I saw - an entirely different team appearing from the locker room after halftime. Let’s focus on the action after halftime. No need to dwell on that first half.
That was an impressive turn around considering their performance for the previous 6 quarters. They never quit and even stepped up their play. The team obviously believes in Rodriguez and continues to play hard for him. I am not sure what a galvanizing win is supposed to look like, but a new Wolverine team has showed up in the second stanza. At the very least, the players have to feel good about their performance and believe that execution will lead to more victories. I think this win is more important to the program at large than this particular season.
I also saw: Michigan overcome horrible field position in the second half. Do you realize their average starting position was their own 20-yard line?...I also saw Threet run farther without being tackled than I ever thought I he would. I loved the two hands at the end…Speaking of Threet, how about that jump pass on the first possession of the second half. Tebow-esque?...For the most part, Wisconsin did not cross midfield in the second half until their penultimate drive. Their opening drive made it into Michigan territory for a few plays, another started at Michigan’s 46 (because of a penalty) and went backwards, and one other drive made it to the Michigan 49-yard line. Wisconsin never sniffed a scoring opportunity until they were desperate.
What I didn’t see…
Those underachieving Michigan linebackers I keep reading about online. I know Beckum was out, which helped their cause, but the Michigan defense (and linebackers) played well. Hell, they even scored a touchdown. They gave up 19 first half points but you can thank the turnovers for that. Wisconsin only gained 145 yards on their five scoring possessions. If a team like Wisconsin only has to average a 30-yard drive to score, they are going to get points. In the second half, the Badgers went nowhere for 25 minutes.
I also did not see: Nick Sheridan, which was somewhat surprising considering Threet’s halftime stat line…Wisconsin’s ability to cover the intermediate routes. (Mathews dropped the two long pass attempts I can remember.) Give Michigan’s coaches credit for using those routes over and over…Wisconsin jump the snap. Michigan seems to snap the ball in the same rhythm each play – about one second after Threet claps…Any reason not to go for two after the interception return. I understand there is some debate on that point, but a successful try takes pressure off the defense.
Who I watched…
I have to admit, I did not watch anyone in particular. There was not much to watch in the first half and by the time the scoring burst was over, I had been transformed into your basic fan. I was the purest of spectators, without agenda or analytical bent. I was just watching a great finish.
What I expect next week…
Let me play Captain Obvious for a moment and say that a performance similar to their second half will make for a close game. Vegas has the Wolverines as the favorites, so they appear to be counting on that continued performance. Michigan’s offense should look improved against Illinois, but can the defense slow down Juice. I doubt it, and I think Michigan will need to score 30 points to win the game. That means that the offense will have to take some chances early in order to avoid having to play catch-up for a second straight game…I also expect that the boos will be gone for a while. The crowd for the Illinois will be far less timid after that comeback and well be ready to go from the beginning.
What this game tells me about The Game…
Michigan is capable of stringing first downs against a legitimate defense when they do not engage in a fumble festival. We know Ohio State has struggled with spread attacks in the past, so Michigan may be able to move the ball if they continue to improve on offense. It is difficult to speak with certainty regarding their response to adversity since this was a home game (see Notre Dame for opposite road reaction) but I think this win can provide the confidence that was sorely lacking. I have to admit, I have a renewed interest in watching this team. I was really getting bored after four games.
This is a collection of text messages I sent to Tim during the game. They are in chronological order:
so notre dames defense is really bad then...
i thought that was nfl only. uconn showed thats completely legit (this is about the fair catch call)
yakety sax
:(
sheridan eta (I didn't want this, but I am surprised that the staff stuck with Threet all game. Our starter ladies and gentlemen)
that was a sheridan-esque pick to end the half
guess what richrod is asking for christmas (the answer is an offensive line)
games i needed to be drunker for:
i think the 2010 board may need to debut this week to prevent mass suicide
chocolate milk power?
After that, it became a game and the phone stayed in the pocket. For most of the year, the team has looked as though it gets stronger in the second half and even into the fourth quarter. This game should difinitively prove that Michigan is officially a second half teaml, which for anyone who watched the 2005 seaon, is a welcome change.
This has been seen a lot and posted here more than once, but it bears repeating. You go twelve rounds...
When I originally previewed the Wisconsin Badgers in the summer, it appeared as though they would be one of the conference's top teams, especially if their pass defense was able to step forward despite the loss of NFL early-entrant Jack Ikegwuonu. When we spoke to Derek Zetlin this week, we learned that a lot has changed for the Badgers so far this season, but the expectations are still high.
First, let's take a look at Derek's list of things that weren't quite right with the preview:
Evridge actually won the starting job last year but a hamstring injury allowed Donovan to step in and win the job. He's also not as immobile as you make it seem.
I wouldn't consider Hill a "Fatty" anymore. He's lost weight and is now elusive more than ever.
WR Maurice Moore is seeing more snaps than the other backups after Jefferson and Gilreath.
O'Brien Schofield starts at DE opposite Shaughnessy.
McFadden starts over Hodge at MLB. Hodge is actually 3rd on the depth chart behind St. Jean because he sucks that much.
Goins and Brinkley have split time opposite Langford. Jay Valai starts at SS over Pleasant.
Nortman punts over Debauche and he's looked good so far.
In addition, some important things have changed since then:
Lance Smith was kicked off the team prior to the first game for violating the First Offender Program regarding a domestic violence charge from a year ago. He transfered to Memphis.
Beckum did miss the first 2 games because of a hamstring injury. Evridge threw for 308 yards i that game, granted it was against Marshall. But Graham has really looked great and in my mind will be an NFL TE.
Kirk Decremer is out for the season with a back injury.
Henry has been hurt all year, but might be back for the Michigan game.
So it appears that the Badgers have been missing a couple key pieces to the team.
As per usual, the Badgers look to move the ball behind a power run game on the newly-slimmed legs of PJ Hill. There will be lots of between-the-tackles action behind a strong O-line, and a play-action passing game relying mostly on the tight ends.
However, there is a bit of uncertainty due to injury for the Badgers. Hill has been slightly nicked up, and with Lance Smith off the team, backups John Clay and Zach Brown look to play a more prominent role. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Clay also has had some injury issues so far this fall. If Hill is less than 100%, Michigan may be able to stop Wisconsin by focusing on the run game, and forcing Allan Evridge to get it done through the air.
Even if Travis Beckum still isn't 100%, however, Garrett Graham is also a darn good option from the tight end position. If Beckum is 100%, Wisconsin should be able to do some really good things in the passing game by going to the TEs. The wideouts don't pose a huge threat on their own, but with a strong running game and two skilled tight ends to take the defense's focus off the perimeter, there may be a couple plays available to the Badgers.
Defensively, the Badgers have run hot and cold. Until the Fresno State game, they were on a run of starting games slowly, so if Michigan wins the toss, it might be a good idea to take the ball to start out. The secondary is the major point of weakness for Wisconsin, though they have performed somewhat admirably so far (albeit against Fresno State and a pair of tomato cans). With the potential return of Aaron Henry, they could see another step forward in that respect.
The Badgers are doing a good job against the run, but they've faced even-less-prolific offenses in that respect. Michigan is also running a different scheme than any of the Badgers' opponents so far, and they might be able to expose some weaknesses with the zone-read game. Like many traditional power-run teams, the Badgers have a problem with spread offenses, so the Wolverines may be able to exploit that.
Offensively, Michigan should be able to have some success. If they manage to execute like they did against Notre Dame, minus the egregious mistakes (i.e. several thousand fumbles, Nick Sheridan), they should be able to move the ball.
Predictions Michigan gets its highest scoring output of the year (currently 23 points against Utah) The defense helps out in that respect, coming away with a turnover that gives Michigan the ball somewhere inside the red zone (or scoring one themselves). Wisconsin wins, 34-24
For this week, we talked to Derek Zetlin, the football beat writer and sports content editor for the Badger Herald. If you want to know what Mr. Zetlin looks like, I've got you covered. Topics ranged from the fleetness of Evridge to the fatness of Hill. Many thanks to Mr. Zetlin for his time and insights. I hope you guys enjoy the preview:
After Saturday night's offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?
Let's take a look at the logic. Wisconsin is a good team Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno) Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo) Toledo is a good team.
Of course, early in the season, we don't know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?
Maybe the Badgers really aren't very good. Sure, it's not the most likely case, but there's a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren't very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.
Resumes? Resumes. Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.
Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying "o ya were da badgers" and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying "o ya were da badgers" and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn't happen in Wisconsin's only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.
Yahoo's Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno's defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn't expect to win?
Michigan is on the right hash in a basic spread set. Brandon Minor is the running back to Steven Threet's left. Greg Mathews and Junior Hemingway are the wideouts to the left and right, respectively. In the left slot is Martavious Odoms. At slot on the right side is tight end Kevin Koger, appearing in a game for the first time this year. Wisconsin counters with a 3-2-6 dime package. The four CB/Nickel players are head up over the receivers. The linebackers are head up over Threet and Minor. The two safeties are deep.
At the snap, Threet takes a 3-step drop. Minor sets as though he's pass blocking, though Wisconsin only comes on a three-man rush. Free of the duty of protecting Threet, Minor runs a short circle route out of the backfield. Odoms runs a 10-yard stop route. The other three receivers all run vertical routes, with Mathews and Hemingway on fly routes down the sideline, and Koger running a seam down the middle. 
Wisconsin rushes the three linemen, runs man coverage on the receivers (and backs, including a spy on Threet), and has two safeties taking deep halves over the top. Threet goes deep to Koger, who is behind his defender. Koger makes the catch at the 6, and isn't hit by a safety until after he's in the endzone.
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